The Pound Sterling (GBP) has trended narrowly against the Euro GBP/EUR) this morning but risen by 0.4% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD), potentially due to this morning’s UK domestic data.
UK Housing Figures Mixed Today on ‘Super Thursday’
The earlier Halifax House Price results for January and the three months up to the month have respectively fallen from 2% to 1.7% and from 9.5% to 9.7%, while New Car Registrations have seen a shift from a previous 8.4% to 2.9%.
Pound Sterling (GBP) has made gains of 0.5% against the Euro (GBP/EUR) and 0.9% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) today, having been put in this position by the PM’s measured response to critics of the UK Referendum draft that has just been published.
Mix of Support, Ambivalence and Contempt for UK Referendum Conditions
The ongoing debate in the House of Commons over the UK-EU Referendum has drawn a mixture of responses from attending MPs, with some praising the PM on provisionally finalising the complex terms of the vote, some remarking that such a piece of legislation is ‘interesting’ and others, including many Torys, reacting with scorn to terms and conditions that they see as little different from the present ones.
Pound Sterling (GBP) has made little real positive movement against the Euro (GBP/EUR) and the US Dollar (GBP/USD) today, mainly due to investor caution ahead of a crucial exchange in Parliament today.
‘Real Progress’ or a Real Mess? PM Set to Defend Yesterday’s Draft Referendum Document
The Pound’s (GBP) future movement today cannot be easily predicted, given that a competent defence of the PM for his draft document may not guarantee a strengthening of the Pound in the immediate aftermath.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has fallen by minor amounts against the Euro (GBP/EUR) and the US Dollar (GBP/USD) this afternoon, although these losses are significantly less than those recorded earlier.
UK Businesses Unfazed by ‘Draft’ Proposal, says BCC DG
While many will be reacting with elation or panic to the recent publication of the draft UK Referendum terms, British Chambers of Commerce Director General John Longworth has stated that ‘most business people will want to wait to see a final UK-EU deal before assessing carefully the impact on their businesses and their vote. A lot can change in the weeks ahead’.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates have both crashed today, potentially due to a combination of domestic and wider UK-affecting factors.
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD Exchange Rate News: Construction PMI Drop Disappoints Investors ahead of ‘Brexit’ Terms Revelation
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has fared relatively poorly against its competitors today, having fallen by -0.34% against the Euro (GBP/EUR), -0.5% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) and the Danish Krone (GBP/DKK) and -0.8% against the Romanian Leu (GBP/RON). On the more positive side, the Pound has made gains of 0.5% against the New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) and 2.3% against the Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB).
Two factors are the likely causes for the current GBP downtrend – the morning’s UK Construction PMI for January and the most recent development in the UK Referendum proceedings.
In the former field, a reduction from 57.8 to 55 has been recorded, against expectations of a better drop to 57.5. In the latter, although the UK Referendum draft terms are expected to be published imminently, current predictions are that both the ‘In’ and ‘Out’ campaigns will have cause for dissatisfaction with both the broad conditions as well as the fine print.
Euro (EUR) Rallies on Unemployment Results while US Dollar (USD) Firms after Caucus
The Euro (EUR) has made notable gains against most of its economic rivals today, having advanced to 0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD), 0.4% against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), 1% against the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and 1.1% against the New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) and the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR).
The most notable developments for the Eurozone this morning have been the German and overall Unemployment Rate results for January; Germany has posted an unexpected drop in its rate from 6.3% to 6.2%, while the Eurozone figure has declined from 10.5% to 10.4%, also against expectations. This marks the lowest rate for the currency bloc in 4 years.
The US Dollar’s (USD) movement has been similarly positive so far today, although the only recent event of note has been the Iowa Caucus, the first of many gauntlets faced by US presidential candidates before two are picked out in the battle for the White House. Although risk-laden Donald Trump had been widely pegged to win the top spot in the Republican Party, the actual victory went to Ted Cruz, who is by comparison considered a far more stable figure in the world of politics and economics.
The US Dollar has declined against the Euro (USD/EUR) today but made minor gains against the Pound Sterling USD/GBP).
GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Referendum Terms due to be Revealed Shortly, Fed Speech Later
The near-future is sure to be crucial for the short-term value of Pound Sterling (GBP), given that there is likely to be an intense and thorough scrutiny of every line of the draft referendum terms that are due out shortly.
Later on, a speech from Fed official Esther George is scheduled, although even a hawkish stance may have little impact due to the length of time until the next Fed Interest Rate Decision is due.
Current GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3197, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7577, the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.4402, the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6945, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.0911 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9167 today.