The Pound Sterling (GBP) has risen by 0.5% again the Euro (GBP/EUR) and 0.7% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) today – this has come after the last UK announcements of the week came out in favour of the UK currency.
US’s Turn to Take over this Afternoon as Glut of Results Incoming
With the UK’s contributions to the trinity out of the way and the Eurozone Industrial Production figures failing to inspire much Euro (EUR) confidence, the next affecters will mainly be the US Advance Retail Sales figures for September and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. No prediction can be made for the latter result, but the former has a 0.2% rise forecast.
The US Dollar (USD) has improved its situation both against the Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) and in general since earlier today; the ‘Buck’ has risen to 0.6% against the Pound (GBP). This has come from a speech from Fed official James Bullard, whose words today have been the most optimistic out of the four recent speeches held by Fed members in the past two days.
UK Results to Open Tomorrow’s Movement in the GBP, EUR, USD Trinity
Although the US Dollar (USD) is currently in an advantageous position against the Pound (GBP), this may be undone by tomorrow’s UK results, which will be the first to arrive and potentially affect the movement of the three currencies before the Eurozone and then US results are released.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates have both dived today following the news that the UK base Inflation Rate fell in September.
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD Exchange Rate News: Negative CPI Printing Dooms Sterling to Flurry of Speculation
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has dropped by -0.5% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) today and had a worse faring of -0.9% against the Euro (GBP/EUR) and others. The most notable losses include -0.9% against the Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) and the Danish Krone (GBP/DKK) and -1.4% against the Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK). Gains have included 0.3% against the Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) and 0.5% against the Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB) and the South African Rand (GBP/ZAR).
The biggest Sterling-centric news today has been the UK CPI results for September; against predictions, all three of the day’s major inflation rate figures have fallen short. The monthly and annual base result posted at -0.1% for the first time since April this year and the Core variant only hit 1% instead of the forecast 1.1%.
Euro (EUR) Remains Steady Despite Double Dose of Negative Eurozone Data
The Euro (EUR) has performed surprisingly well today, despite suffering from most of its relevant releases coming out negative. The German CPIs for September have largely printed in the negative, along with the German and Eurozone ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment postings all declining. The Euro’s greatest gains today have been by 0.8% against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) and the Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) along with 1% against the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR). Along with this, a 0.3% advance against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) has been seen.
The US Dollar (USD) has also been in a fairly strong position today, although the ‘Buck’ has been prevented from reaching its full potential due to mixed Fed speeches. Yesterday, Fed policymakers Dennis Lockhart, Charles Evans and Lael Brainard gave speeches; while Lockhart and Brainard were essentially neutral due to their ‘wait-and-see’ attitudes, Evans was particularly notable as a dove, given that he advocated waiting until 2016 to consider raising the US interest rate and stated that adjustments should only be by very small amounts when they do take place.
The US Dollar reached highs of 0.7% against the Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) and 0.9% against the South African Rand (USD/ZAR), but posted lower at 0.5% against the Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) and fell by -0.2% against the Euro (USD/EUR).
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: UK and US Data to Dominate Tomorrow’s Movement
With most of the major Eurozone results being spent over Monday and Tuesday this week, the next high-impact event from that area is scheduled for Friday, with the release of the Eurozone CPIs. Until then, UK and US economic publications will be the stars of the show. That being said, tomorrow’s Eurozone Industrial Production report will be of interest.
In particular, tomorrow’s UK Claims, Earnings and Employment data will be worth paying close attention to, along with the US Advance Retail Sales result for September. With the former set, predictions have been optimistic overall with expectations being for a reduction in the number of Jobless Claims and a healthy 140k person boost in the Employment Change field. With the US Sales result, a positive prediction has also been made for a 0.2% increase.
Current GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3402, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7462, the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) the exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.5253, the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6560, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1379 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8790 today.