The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were all trending higher in Friday’s trading ahead of UK Average Weekly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures.
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates all advanced in Wednesday’s European session after Friday’s interesting day of trading which saw European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi covered in glitter from a protester.
Friday could be an exciting day for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/CAD movement with the release of UK Average Weekly Earnings, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate stats, as well as the Eurozone, Canadian and US Consumer Price Indexes.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate climbed as European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi held a press conference where a protester jumped on the desk in front of him mid-speech, while the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates also climbed.
WATCH: ECB press conference adjourned after protester attacks Mario Draghi https://t.co/UBBM80D45S
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) April 15, 2015
In addition, the Bank of Canada (BOC) kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remained in a tight range on Wednesday ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, while the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates softened.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell in Tuesday’s European trading after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded Eurozone growth forecasts, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates advanced after weaker than forecast US Advance Retail Sales.
The #IMF's just-released #WorldEconomicOutlook still has decent growth projections this year for #Greece pic.twitter.com/EWLV0tM9TV
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) April 14, 2015
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates all took a tumble in Tuesday’s European session after UK core inflation tumbled from 1.2% to 1.0% in March on the year (the lowest level since July 2006), while the non-core measure remained at 0.0%, the weakest level since 1960.
Not since 1960 has CPI inflation been as low as it is today. Historical chart based on @ONS numbers: pic.twitter.com/GCZyB3GnmV
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) April 14, 2015
UK Inflation Falls, Taking Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Down With It
Economists had forecast the core UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) would remain at 1.2% on the year, and a fall in the core measure can’t be accredited to falling oil prices—bad news for the current Conservative government in the run up to the May general election.
Furthermore, the UK only narrowly avoided stepping into disinflation territory, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stating that the March non-core reading fell by 0.01%, although the monthly ecostat was rounded up to 0.0%.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Trading Lower Amid Greek Negotiations – Is a Default Ahead?
The Euro is trading under the dark cloud of Greek negotiations at the moment as investors attempt to price in the possibility of a Grexit. Tuesday has seen more rumours regarding a Greek default on loan repayments surface, as the country edges desperately close to running out of funds.
One government official stated: ‘We have come to the end of the road… If the Europeans won’t release bailout cash, there is no alternative [to a default].’
The prospect of Greece failing to make their loan repayments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be a massive shock to the 16-year old Eurozone and the Euro. If one nation decides to exit, it leaves the door open for other countries to follow suit.
However, Eurozone Industrial Production figures are out later in the session and could make for an interesting day of Euro exchange rate trading as economists forecast a fall from 1.2% to 0.8% in February on the year. The month is predicted to record 0.4% growth.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Jump on Crude Oil Rebound
The Canadian Dollar is having a quiet start to the week by way of domestic data inspired movement with few ecostats of any significance released. However, Wednesday’s forecast to spice things up a little for the ‘Loonie’ with the release of Canadian Manufacturing Sales and Existing Home Sales figures.
Furthermore, central bank action will also make Wednesday a major day for Canadian Dollar exchange rate movement with the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision announced. The BOC’s monetary policy report is forecast to be of high influence to the Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR), Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) and Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rates.
The Canadian Dollar has been trending lower against a variety of other currency majors as crude oil prices have taken a tumble. However, some industry experts believe that the shale oil boom, which is largely responsible for pushing crude oil output to its most productive in forty years, is now calming.
Forecasts for a 57,000 barrel decline per day next month and continued falls in US rig counts could see crude oil prices rebound significantly.
Oil and gas analyst Carl Larry stated: ‘We’re going off an inevitable cliff. The question is how fast is the decline going to go. If it’s fast, if it’s steep, there could be a big jump in the market.’
US Advance Retail Sales Forecast to Impact USD/EUR, USD/CAD, USD/GBP Exchange Rates
Meanwhile, the US Dollar exchange rate is preparing for an exciting day of trading with the release of the eagerly anticipated US Advance Retail Sales figures later in the session.
The Advance Retail Sales ecostat is forecast to record 1.1% growth in March after February’s downbeat -0.6% contraction.
Update: US Advance Retail Sales failed to reach the 1.1% forecast, instead coming in at 0.9%, in March.
Friday will be another day of influence for the US Dollar with the US Consumer Price Index released.
UPDATE: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) disappointed on Friday when the non-core measure stepped into deflation territory and hit -0.1% in March on the year from the former 0.0%. However, the core reading was a little more positive marking a small rise from 1.7% to 1.8%.
Meanwhile, Canada’s inflation level jumped in both the core and non-core reading. The non-core index rose from 1.0% to 1.2% while the core measure rocketed to 2.4% from 2.1%.
A fall in US core inflation could pressure the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR), US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rates significantly lower.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates are all forecast to fluctuate on the highly influential UK Unemployment Rate, Average Weekly Earnings and Employment Change figures out on Friday.
However, for the remainder of Tuesday’s session it’s highly likely the Pound Sterling exchange rate will trend lower as investors digest the fall in the UK’s core inflation measure.
DEFLATION! But it's not as bad as all that. CPI drops to minus 0.01% in March, the tiniest of negative readings. Officially it's still 0.0%
— Richard Edgar (@ITVRichard) April 14, 2015
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is reaching 1.8395. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading at 1.4607; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3852.
