Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rates Recover as Conservatives Look to Remain in Power
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were all trending higher on Friday as the UK general election headed toward a Conservative party win.
Our forecast now 329 Con 233 Lab
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) May 8, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were trading higher amid the UK general election while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate softened after US jobless claims figures printed favourably.
The US Initial Jobless Claims stat came in at 265K in the week through May 2nd while the US Continuing Claims figure reached only 2.2M.
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were all trading lower on Thursday as the UK general election was under-way and investors awaited US Consumer Credit, Canadian Building Permits data and Eurozone Markit PMI’s.
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) May 7, 2015
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates fell in Wednesday’s European trading after the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped surprisingly from 47.9 to 58.2, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trading higher after the US ADP Employment Change figure fell below forecasts.
US ADP Employment Change Bodes Badly for US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday – USD Softens
ADP vs. NFP Private Payrolls: pic.twitter.com/ogOQ3tCbwt
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) May 6, 2015
The ADP Employment Change stat is often used as a gauge for how the Non-Farm Payrolls figure will print toward the end of the week, and Wednesday’s number failed to inspire optimism.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Supported by Crude Oil Price Rise and Ivey PMI Jump
The Canadian Dollar was also offered some support when the price of crude oil, Canada’s largest commodity began to climb.
Brent crude oil enjoyed a 2.4% rise to $69 as US oil inventories declined more than forecast last week, falling by 3.9 million in the week through May 1st.
Keeping the crude oil (Brent) rebound in context pic.twitter.com/8cJHFZZAaP
— Eric Burroughs (@ericbeebo) May 6, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were trending lower in Wednesday’s European trading, while the Pound Sterling US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate climbed after Markit’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) beat forecasts.
Additionally, the BRC Shope Price Index rose slightly in April from -2.1% to -1.9% on the year.
BRC director general Helen Dickinson commented: ‘It’s my hope that the next government notes today’s figures as they’re indicative of an important story from the last few years. Despite the low margins in a fiercely competitive market, retailers have kept prices down, and in doing so made sure the public are able to see their wages go that little bit further during a difficult period.’
UK PMI surveys, buoyed by service sector, signal economy rebounding with 0.8% GDP growth rate in April pic.twitter.com/uIee8gAdIj
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) May 6, 2015
UK General Election Forecast to cause Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Swings
The UK general election is forecast to cause some major Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate movement this week, with UK citizens voting for their chosen party on Thursday.
Big jump in UK services PMI, a strong indicator for UK GDP, when other data pointed to faster slowdown. A Tory boost 24hrs before #GE2015
— Joshua Raymond (@Josh_CityIndex) May 6, 2015
Markit’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed favourably on Wednesday when it climbed from 58.9 to 59.5 in April.
Markit’s chief economist Chris Williamson stated: ‘Fears of the economy slumping amid election jitters are allayed as an upturn in service sector activity has helped offset sharp slowdowns in both manufacturing and construction.’
Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rates Bolstered by Greek IMF Loan Repayment Calming Grexit Fears
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) exchange rate recovered on Wednesday after Greece made its €200M International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt repayment, subduing fears of an immediate Greek default and potential Grexit.
Additionally, the final Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs crept slightly higher than initial forecasts, despite a drop in Germany’s final ecostats. The Eurozone’s Services PMI came in at 54.1 in April, while the Composite measure resided at 53.9.
Eurozone Retail Sales numbers are due out later in Wednesday’s trading and are forecast to have a moderate impact on the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rates.
Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP), Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) Exchange Rates Forecast for Movement on Oil Prices, Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change Stats
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) exchange rate could experience fluctuations later in North American trading with the release of the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. The Ivey PMI has been predicted to climb from 47.9 to 49.2. Any favourable increase closer to or above the 50.0 benchmark which indicates expansion could see the ‘Loonie’ exchange rate rally.
The price of crude oil, Canada’s largest commodity, recorded gains on Wednesday, with WTI extending over the $61 mark.
Oil expert and analyst Fadel Gheit commented: ‘If oil prices stabilise over $60, I believe we are going to resume production growth in the second half of the year. More companies will drill more wells.’
Thursday will see the release of Canadian Building Permits data, which is forecast to rise by 2.0% in March following February’s -0.9% contraction. Meanwhile, Friday will be a major day for Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR), Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) and Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rate movement with the release of Canadian Net Change in Employment and Canadian Unemployment Rate stats.
US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP), US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast for US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Movement
The US Dollar (USD) exchange rate could be in for some hefty movement later in Wednesday’s session when the US MBA Mortgage Applications and ADP Employment Change numbers are published. The US ADP Employment Change figure is usually used to forecast US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls data, which follows on Friday.
Another major factor of influence will be Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and IMF chief Christine Lagarde speaking in Washington today. Any hawkish tones from the Fed boss could see the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR), US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rates fall.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is trading at 1.8661. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.5416; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trading at 1.3746.