The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD), Pound Sterling New Zealand (GBP/NZD) and Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rates could all be in for an exciting week of trading with several data releases worth noting and the unfolding of the Greek saga.
Alex Stubb, Finland's finmin, keeps it brief: "I have very low expectations for today." #EuroSummit
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) June 22, 2015
Monday morning began with creditors offering Greece a six-month bailout period in order to continue negotiations. As a result the Euro (EUR) exchange rate was offered some support.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD awaiting Monday’s Eurogroup Meeting
The Euro (EUR) exchange rate could be in for fluctuations in the week ahead with a highly influential Eurogroup meeting taking place which could be make or break for Greece. Tensions heightened on Friday when Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke from St Petersburg.
Tsipras stated: ‘As all of your are aware, we are at the moment at the centre of a storm of a whirlpool, but we live near the sea so we’re not scared of the sea. We are ready to go to new seas to reach new safe ports.’
‘The problem we are facing is deeply rooted in the process I have described. The EU should pursue its own path. The EU should go back to its initial principles of solidarity and social justice. Ensuring strict economic measures will lead us nowhere. The so-called problem of Greece is the problem of the whole European Union.’
— EU Council (@EUCouncil) June 22, 2015
Monday will see the release of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index, while Tuesday will see a range of German and Eurozone Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) publishes such as the Services and Manufacturing PMIs.
US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: USD/EUR, USD/GBP, USD/NZD, USD/AUD Predicted for US Durable Goods Orders Movement
The US Dollar (USD) exchange rate is likely to see its largest market movement on Tuesday with the release of the US Durable Goods Orders stat. The ecostat is expected to register -0.6% contraction in May after the previous month’s -0.5% slip.
Meanwhile, Wednesday will see the release of MBS Mortgage Applications, US Gross Domestic Product and US Personal Consumption data.
Addititonally, the US Dollar (USD) exchange rate is extremely sensitive to any statements from the Federal Reserve at the moment as investors attempt to price in interest rate hikes.
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Australian Job Vacancies Data Predicted to see AUD/GBP, AUD/EUR, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD Exchange Rates Fluctuate
The Australian Dollar (AUD) exchange rate is in for a quiet week ahead with only Australian Job Vacancies data on Thursday of notable influence. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could experience fluctuations on account of several other factors such as iron ore commodity price changes, and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut speculation.
Additionally, Chinese data can have a major impact on the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) strength as China is the Oceanic region’s largest trading partner. China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI will be out on Tuesday which could have a hefty impact on the AUD/GBP, AUD/EUR, AUD/USD and AUD/NZD exchange rates.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Exchange Rate Forecast: NZD/AUD, NZD/EUR, NZD/USD, NZD/GBP Expected to Recover if NZ Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales Print Favourably
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rate may have the opportunity to recover some strength against other majors in the week ahead with the release of some moderately influential ecostats. Sunday will kick-start the data stream with the release of Westpac’s Consumer Confidence stat.
The sentiment index previously resided at 117.4 in the first quarter and any improvement could help the NZD/AUD, NZD/EUR, NZD/USD and NZD/GBP exchange rates climb.
Monday will continue with the New Zealand Credit Card Spending figure which is also moderately influential for the market. April’s figure came in at 7.1% on the year and any additional increases are likely to see the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rate register gains.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD Predicted to Fluctuate on BoE Rate Hike Time Line Speculation
The Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate is likely to experience movement on the UK BBA Loans for House Purchase ecostat on Wednesday, but with little other data due for publication, the British currency is likely to fluctuate on account of speculation.
The Bank of England (BoE) could potentially be the first of the Group of Seven (G7) developed nations to hike interest rates since the onset of the global financial crisis. If investors believe that a rate hike is near, the GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD exchange rates could rally.
Dairy prices are also a large influence on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as it’s the nation’s largest commodity export. New Zealand Trade Balance data will follow on Thursday and could also be significant for NZD/GBP, NZD/EUR, NZD/AUD, NZD/USD currency pair strength.
One of the most important factors that could affect the US Dollar (USD) strength at present is strong labour market data. The ecostats can help investors project likely interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve—a development that causes significant USD/EUR, USD/GBP, USD/AUD, USD/NZD exchange rate movement.
On Monday, the Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was trending at 2.0414.
The Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate was trending at 2.2982.
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trending at 1.5889.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending at 1.3978.