The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates could be in for major fluctuations next week with UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP), German and Eurozone Consumer Price Indexes (CPI), US Consumer Confidence and Canadian GDP released, to name a few.
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate began Monday’s European session trending higher, while both the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates began trading lower.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will be in for a major day on Monday with the release of UK Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Secured on Dwellings and Mortgage Approvals all before 09:00 GMT.
But the most influential data will still be yet to come; Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Industrial Confidence, Economic Confidence and Services Confidence are scheduled to emerge at 09:00, before the highly influential German Consumer Price Index at 12:00.
Germany is renowned as the Eurozone powerhouse, the strongest and most influential economy within the 19-nation currency bloc; therefore, any inflation developments in Germany could sway the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) and Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rates quite significantly.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence will also be out later in the session which will offer moderate influence to the GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/CAD exchange rates in the American session.
However, the Euro won’t get a rest on Tuesday in what’s forecast to be an extremely choppy session with so much data due for release.
The excitement will begin at 07:55, with German Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate ecostats. The Unemployment Rate is predicted to decline from 6.5% to 6.4% in the month of March—an event that could see the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate rally.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate will also be unveiled at 09:00 and is expected to have remained at 11.2% in February. Another majorly influential event on Tuesday will be the publication of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, also at 09:00 GMT.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will quieten down for the Euro, leaving a lot of EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and EUR/CAD movement to developments in negotiations between Greece and its creditors, central bank speculation, policy divergence and geopolitical tensions.
Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is another currency pair due for a rollercoaster ride in the week ahead. Monday’s US data stream will kick off with US Personal Consumption Expenditure, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Pending Home Sales stats.
Tuesday will see the release of the highly influential US Consumer Confidence figure, which is expected to slip from 96.4 to 96.3 in March. Additionally, the week is scattered with speeches from many Federal Reserve officials, all of which could impact the US Dollar to Pound (USD/GBP), US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) and US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rates dramatically.
Wednesday will keep up the pressure on the US Dollar with the release of ISM Manufacturing, MBA Mortgage Applications, Employment Change, ISM Prices Paid and Markit’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
In general, Thursday is a quieter day for data the world over; therefore as the majority of ecostats are from the US economy, US Dollar movement could dominate the market. US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Trade Balance, and Factory Orders are all due for release.
Friday will be a massive day for US Dollar trading as the week finishes with a bang. US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Change in Household Employment stats are all due out and forecast to cause massive US Dollar swings.
It’s important to note, that any improvement in the US labour market is likely to cause a US Dollar exchange rate rally as the Federal Reserve has previously stated that tightening in joblessness would be a driver of interest rate hikes.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, so a positive surprise would be well received.
Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate could also experience swings in the week ahead with influential Canadian data due to emerge; this week saw very few North American ecostats out, leaving the ‘Loonie’ extremely vulnerable to oil price changes.
Monday will warm up the week with mildly influential Canadian Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Price Indexes. However, Tuesday’s when Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP), Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) and Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR) exchange rates could be in for massive movement.
Canadian Gross Domestic Product data will detail January’s growth—the December ecostat resided at 2.8% on the year. Furthermore, Average Weekly Earnings will also emerge.
The Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will be out on Wednesday and is forecast to slip from 52.9 to 52.5 in March. While this figure would be above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, negative ecostats could encourage the Bank of Canada to reconsider its decision to keep interest rates on hold and weigh on the ‘Loonie’.
Canada’s International Merchandise Trade Balance will be out on Thursday and close the week for Canadian domestic data. The report is of low-volatility and unlikely to cause much GBP/CAD movement.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates are all expected to feel the influence of Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve interest rate hike speculation in coming months.