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Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Forecast: lack of British Data means Euro Likely to Hold Gains into Weekend


The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has declined today and given the lack of further influential UK economic announcements, it seems as though this current downtrend will continue until Monday.

GBP/EUR Exchange Rate News: Low Impact Car Registrations give Sterling a Blunt Sword in Pairing

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has dropped by -0.4% against the Euro (GBP/EUR) today; elsewhere, the Pound has seen an extremely mixed set of results. These include losses of -0.4% against the Israeli New Shekel (GBP/ILS) and-1.1% against the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY), but gains of 0.4% against the Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD), 0.5% against the South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) and 0.8% against the Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB).

This inconsistent range of results has been mainly caused by a reduction in confidence for the value of the Pound following disappointing economic releases for Sterling yesterday. The UK Markit/CIPS Composite and Services PMIs both fell while remaining above 50 points, indicating that a slowdown was occurring in UK industries.

The only UK economic data publication of the day has been annual New Car Registrations for August; although this rose by 9.6% (bettering the previous growth of 3.2%), the impact of this data is considered to be fairly low.

Euro Holds Fast despite All-Around disappointment in Today’s Eurozone PMIs

The Euro (EUR) has risen by 0.4% against the Pound (EUR/GBP) today, a somewhat remarkable feat given what has happened to the Eurozone economy yesterday and today. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) future economic policies were laid out by ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday; the overwhelmingly dovish tone of his speech and responses were severely detrimental to the Euro’s performance, although Friday has seen a return to form as speculators had generally predicted that the ECB would be forced to cut growth and inflation forecasts amid crashing commodity prices.

The common currency avoided depreciation even after the results of the Retail and Construction PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone in August and the German Factory Orders for July were announced; all showed drops against the previous totals, yet the common currency passed through the bad news relatively unscathed.

The Euro has risen by over 0.7% against the New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD), the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD), the Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) and the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR) today and the only major loss has been by -0.7% against the Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY).

Exchange Rate Forecast: GBP/EUR Slump unlikely to Continue into Weekend

As no further UK or Eurozone announcements are taking place today, it seems improbable that any real change will take place in the pairing until next week. The only current event involving the two currencies is the G20 Meeting in Ankara, but as the meeting is not explicitly Eurozone or UK focused, any announcements are unlikely to unbalance the current softening of the Pound against the Euro.

Current GBP, EUR Exchange Rates

The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3678 and the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7313 today.