The Pound Sterling (GBP) has risen marginally against the Euro (GBP/EUR) today, following the announcement of negative results for all of France’s BTF Auctions.
UK Inflation Data to provide First Real Impact of the Week on the Pairing
The next piece of data to affect the GPB/EUR exchange rate is likely to be the announcement of the annual UK Inflation Rate data for September tomorrow, although at the time of writing, forecasts were mixed for Sterling; the base CPI had a repeated 0% result assigned to it, although expectations for the Core CPI were considerably better with a printing of 1.1% being on the cards.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has trended narrowly in the positive against the Euro (GBP/EUR) today, although neither currency is exactly spoilt for choice with economic releases today.
French, Italian and Portuguese Results to decide Minor GBP/EUR Movement Today
With very little to look forward to in terms of major announcements today, the pairing will likely be shifted slightly by today’s Portuguese Inflation Rate figures for September and France’s BTF Auctions. So far today, France’s Current Account data has come in with a €0.2bn rise against forecasts for a fall by the same amount.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate ended last week in a clear downtrend, although given the quantity of high-impact UK economic publications due out this week, it will be ‘all to play for’ against the common currency (EUR) in the week to come.
GBP/EUR Exchange Rate News: Fluctuating UK Data Prevented Overall Sterling Victory Last Week
The UK had a number of important data releases out last week, but despite this high-impact setup, most of the Pound-centric (GBP) publications disappointed investors in one way or another. The first of these were Monday’s Services and Composite PMIs for September, both of which failed to meet with predictions. Wednesday’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production results were actually supportive of Sterling due to their exceeding expectations, but this bubble was soon burst on Thursday when the Bank of England (BoE) minutes came in.
The tone was overtly dovish, so much so that some economists pushed their interest rate hike predictions all the way ahead to 2017 at the earliest. Sterling plunged in value after the release of the data and wasn’t helped the day afterwards when UK Construction Output in August was shown to have fallen into negative figures.
ECB and IMF Contributed to Drag the Common Currency (EUR) Lower
The single currency (EUR) had a perhaps worse week than the Pound (GBP), as in addition to suffering from detrimental data outcomes, enthusiasm for the Euro was also dampened by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook resulting in a downgrade of the IMF’s prediction for Eurozone growth.
As well as this, the European Central Bank (ECB) Account of the Monetary Policy Meeting revealed a high level of caution among ECB policymakers, something that again reduced the appeal of the single currency against the competition.
GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecast: CPIs and Economic Outlooks to Open Next Week before UK Data
As with last week, a relatively even balance of results are due out for the UK and the Eurozone in the coming week, although Monday is notably devoid of releases for either currency. Tuesday’s biggest announcements will be the German and UK CPIs for September, along with a number of postings of Economic Sentiment for Germany. Positive forecasts have been made for the UK inflation rate, but the same cannot be universally said of the German one. Adding to this pessimism are the predictions for Germany’s economic future, which in two out of three cases have declines assigned to them.
Wednesday will bring UK Claims, Earnings and Employment figures, the forecasts for which have been broadly optimistic. Finishing off the week on Friday will be the Eurozone CPIs, which are expected to show growth overall.
Closing GBP, EUR Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3501 and the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7409 at the close of the European trading session on Friday.