Newsflash: Pound Holds 1.37 in Quiet Data Day
Although the UK’s RICS House Price Balance report fell short of forecasts, the Pound continued trending in the 1.37 level against the Euro as the Greek bailout negotiations limped on for another day.
The Pound could extend gains against the common currency if tomorrow’s UK Construction Output report surprises to the upside.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3721
Newsflash: GBP/EUR Advances from 1.35 to 1.37
A notable lack of progress in the Greek bailout negotiations, coupled with signs of a rebound in UK output, saw the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate jump on Wednesday.
The pairing advanced beyond 1.37 as trading continued and the UK economy was shown to have expanded by 0.6% in the three months through May.
As the data supports the case for a UK rate adjustment taking place in the first quarter of 2016 it helped the Pound advance on a number of its peers.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3751
Newsflash: UK Industrial Production Increases, GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Climbs
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate advanced by around 0.3% on Wednesday as UK Industrial Production data showed improvement.
Industrial production was shown to have increased by 0.4% on the month in April, beating the 0.1% increase expected, and 1.2% on the year.
Today’s UK GDP data could push the Pound higher still if it shows improvement.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3660
Newsflash: Pound Recovers Losses Despite Sturdy Eurozone Growth
The Pound Sterling to Euro currency pair recouped losses over the course of the European session in spite of the Eurozone’s second first-quarter growth estimate confirming quarterly expansion of 0.4%.
Tomorrow GBP/EUR exchange rate movement could occur as a result of the the UK’s Manufacturing/Industrial Production data and NIESR GDP estimate for May.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3622
Newsflash: UK Trade Deficit Narrows to the Lowest in a Year, Pound Fluctuates
The UK’s latest trade figures showed that the nation’s deficit fell to its lowest level since March last year in April.
The total trade deficit contracted from a revised 3.093 billion Pounds in March to 1.202 billion Pounds in April, inspiring hopes that the shortfall won’t hinder second quarter growth to the extent it damaged first quarter expansion.
According to the Office for National Statistics; ‘The deficit on trade in goods was £8.6 billion in April 2015. The £2.1 billion narrowing from March 2015 was the largest monthly narrowing since June 2013 when the deficit narrowed by £2.6 billion. Between March 2015 and April 2015, exports rose by £0.7 billion, whilst imports decreased by £1.5 billion over the same period. In detail, exports of goods rose by £0.7 billion to £24.5 billion in April 2015. The increase mainly reflects a £0.4 billion rise in exports of chemicals; in particular, a rise in exports of organic compounds, which anecdotal evidence suggests was exported to the USA. Exports of fuels also increased in April 2015 (up £0.2 billion from March). Almost two thirds of this increase was due to fuels other than oil. Imports of goods fell by £1.5 billion in April 2015. £0.8 billion of this decrease was attributed to miscellaneous manufactures. The overall decrease within miscellaneous manufactures was an accumulation of many low level commodities recording lower imports in April. The most significant of which being works of art and furniture. Imports of fuels fell by £0.4 billion between April 2015 and March2015; specifically oil, which fell £0.2 billion.’
After the data was published the Pound held previous declines against both the Euro and US Dollar.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3552
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate could soften to 1.34 today if Greece moves closer to reaching an agreement with its creditors; the UK trade deficit swells or Eurozone growth figures are positively revised.
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate News – Pound Softer after UK GDP Forecasts Cut, Greece Prepares to Compromise on Bailout Deal, EU Referendum Could Damage UK Credit Rating
Although influential ecostats were in fairly short supply on Monday, the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate softened over the course of the European session.
Demand for the Pound slipped slightly as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) cut its UK growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016.
While Sterling losses were limited due to the fact that the CBI also issued some encouraging comments regarding the UK’s future outlook, the GBP/EUR exchange rate was further undermined as German Industrial Production increased by more-than-anticipated on both the month and year.
The German trade surplus also narrowed by less-than-forecast in April and March’s figure was positively revised.
Additionally, top ratings agency Moody’s inferred that the UK’s upcoming in-out EU referendum could damage the nation’s credit rating.
Moody’s stated; ‘In [our] view, a shorter time frame increases the risk that the UK government will not manage to secure the changes that it is seeking, which in turn may negatively influence the government’s willingness to support remaining in the EU. While the outcome of the referendum remains uncertain, Moody’s believes that a withdrawal from the EU would have negative implications for the UK’s growth prospects and – in the absence of an alternative trade arrangement with the EU that at least partly replicates the current access to the EU’s single market – would likely put pressure on the UK’s sovereign rating.’
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell to a low of 1.3530
Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: Greek PM Optimistic that Deal Can Be Struck, Nation Could Receive Bailout Extension
On Tuesday the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate gained by 0.4% in response to hopes that Greece is moving closer to reaching an agreement with its creditors.
While relations between the two sides appeared to hit an all-time low over the weekend, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has since stated that a deal could be brokered if demands (including controversial pension cuts) were reconsidered.
Tsipras was quoted as saying; ‘I think we’re very close to an agreement on the primary surplus for the next few years. There just needs to be a positive attitude on alternative proposals to cuts to pensions or the imposition of recessionary measures.’
A report compiled by the Wall Street Journal also indicated that Greece is in discussions to extend its bailout programme through to March of next year.
The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate achieved a high of 0.7390
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: UK Trade Data, Eurozone GDP Figures Ahead, UK Growth Report in Focus
In the hours ahead the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate could fluctuate in response to the publication of the UK’s latest trade data.
If the trade deficit is shown to have narrowed, the Pound could climb.
However, a widening deficit would be detrimental to the British asset and could push the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate lower.
The Eurozone’s second estimate first quarter growth data is expected to confirm that the currency bloc’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the first three months of the year on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
If that proves to be the case it will mean that the Eurozone expanded by more than the UK in the first quarter and the Euro could consolidate gains against the Pound.
Tomorrow the UK is set to publish Industrial/Manufacturing Production numbers and the UK’s GDP estimate for May.
Figures which imply that the UK is rebounding from the first quarter slowdown would be Pound-supportive.
The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7381 and the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3545