- EUR USD exchange rate trends tightly despite Draghi support – 1.12 seen against the ‘Buck’
- US Dollar remains in demand despite falling optimism score – Redbook results also down
- US budget statement out this evening – ECB speech and Eurozone industrial stats due in near-term
The Euro has lost out against the US Dollar today, although in other pairings, the single currency remains in moderately high demand. The day’s ZEW surveys proved mixed, with the German current conditions score dropping but the Eurozone sentiment index rising in September. One of the day’s major Eurozone developments came from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, who issued a robust defence of the European single market with a speech focused on unity and clear communication between European member nations.
For the US Dollar, the day has been a fairly uneventful one, as despite the NIFB business optimism result for August falling from 94.6 to 94.4, the US currency remained in favourably high demand overall. Additional US data included the monthly and yearly Redbook results, which showed drops in both fields.
Looking ahead, the next major Eurozone event will be a speech from ECB official Sabine Lautenschlaeger, while tomorrow’s EZ contributions will consist of the morning’s industrial production figures for July.
From the US, input will come in the near-future from the nation’s August monthly budget statement; a deficit reduction is on the cards.
(Last updated September 13th, 2016)
The Euro has been in relatively high demand so far today, despite the only major Eurozone releases so far including a falling German finalised inflation rate result for August and a negative printing for Spain’s annual finalised inflation rate stat. Against the US Dollar, a minor decline has been seen.
Looking ahead, the single currency could be shifted upwards against the US Dollar when the ZEW surveys of economic sentiment and current conditions for September come out; these have been forecast to rise in all applicable fields.
For the US Dollar, gains have been widespread in spite of recent US economic news, which has seen Fed officials Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari both speak against the need for a rate hike taking place in the near-future; this has sent the odds of a September rate hike tumbling to as low as 15%.
The next US economic data to watch out for will be the NFIB business optimism index for August, which is expected to show a slight rise from 94.6 to 94.75.
(Last updated September 13th, 2016)
The US Dollar was a similarly strong contender overall yesterday, holding on to opening levels versus the Euro having been aided by remarks from a Fed official that were interpreted as hawkish.
Euro Exchange Rate News: Portuguese Inflation Up in August
The Euro managed to hold its ground against the US Dollar over Monday’s trading session.
Notable Eurozone news was in fairly short supply, with the biggest announcements coming from Ireland, the Netherlands and Portugal.
In August, Ireland’s construction PMI fell harmfully from 61 to 58.4, while the Dutch trade surplus dropped from 4.89bn to 4.82bn.
More beneficially, however, Portugal’s August inflation rate results saw a rise from 0.6% to 0.7% on the year and a shift ‘up’ from -0.7% to -0.2% on the month.
US Dollar Advances Triggered by Fed Comments ahead of Next Week’s Interest Rate Decision
The value of the US Dollar jumped over the course of Monday’s trading session, when a speech came in from Fed official Dennis Lockhart. Speaking as the first of three Fed officials scheduled to make public appearances, Lockhart intimated that;
‘Notwithstanding a few recent weak monthly reports — from the Institute for Supply Management, for example — I am satisfied at this point that [interest rate] conditions warrant that serious discussion’.
While Lockhart is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, he remains an influential figure in the central bank, and may well have contributed to a recent rise in the odds of a Fed rate hike taking place in September.
Future EUR USD Forecast: Eurozone Confidence Scores and US Optimism Data due Today
The Eurozone will be in the spotlight today, releasing a far greater spread of data compared to the US.
Starting off proceedings will be Germany’s finalised August inflation rate results, which are forecast to show a reprint at 0.4% on the year but a decline from 0.3% to 0% in the month.
Following on from this in the morning will be Italy’s positively-predicted industrial production results for July, as well as the Eurozone employment change figures for Q2. For the change, an annual increase has been predicted from 1.4% to 1.6%.
The main event will be the announcement of the ZEW surveys of Eurozone and German economic sentiment for September, as well as the German current conditions sentiment for the same month. In all three areas, Euro-supporting rises have been forecast.
From the US, contributions will be significantly lesser, with the only notable announcement being the morning’s NFIB business optimism index for August; this is expected to rise from 94.6 to 94.75.
Recent EUR USD Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Euro US Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1222 and the US Dollar Euro (USD EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8912.