Since the flat Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision earlier, the Pound has failed to extend its current gain against the Euro (GBP/EUR). However, a worse-than-expected result for the US Claims data this afternoon has seen the Pound steal a lead against the ‘Buck’ (USD).
US Monthly Budget Statement due Imminently, Further GBP/USD Gains Possible if Negative Figures Come Up
No further UK data remains today, but the Pound (GBP) may still be able to expand its current gains against the US Dollar (USD) if the latter nation’s Monthly Budget Statement for November falls further than the -$68.5bn that had been forecast at the time of writing.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has made little noticeable movement change against the Euro (GBP/EUR), the US Dollar (GBP/USD) or any other peers, for that matter. The Bank of England (BoE) once again voted to freeze the UK interest rate, and once against Ian McCafferty was the sole voter in favour of a rate hike.
BoE Inflation Rate Estimate Due Tomorrow Morning
The next Pound-centric (GBP) data will come out tomorrow morning when the BoE announce their Inflation Rate estimate for the next 12 months.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has risen this morning, while conversely the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has trended narrowly in a negative range.
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD Exchange Rate News: Sterling Fluctuates on UK House Price and Trade Balance Figures
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has risen by 0.5% against the Euro (GBP/EUR) today but made scarcely noticeable movement against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) by contrast. Elsewhere, the Pound has risen by 0.5% against the Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) and 0.7% against the Hungarian Forint (GBP/HUF) and the Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK), but fallen by -0.8% against the rallying Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD). The Pound’s large spread of losses come in contrast to yesterday’s sudden rise in GBP appeal among investors.
The Pound’s inconsistent performance so far is due to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance for November falling from 50% to 49% instead of the expected 48%; this has been countered by the UK Trade Balance deteriorating dramatically in October, with the total amount falling from -£1.7bn to -£4.14bn.
Euro (EUR) in Solid Downtrend Today on VW News and ECB Dovishness, US Dollar Steady
The Euro (EUR) has made little positive movement against its rivals today, with losses of -0.5% being seen against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) and the US Dollar (EUR/USD). The single currency has also dropped off by -0.8% against the Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) and -1.3% against the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD).
The appeal of the Euro has been reduced so far by dovish speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers such as Erkki Liikanen, who has stated that: ‘The growth and inflation outlook is still subject to downside risks’. In addition, the German automotive giant Volkswagen is being grilled by the world’s media today on the start of the emissions scandal and how the company’s resolution is progressing.
The US Dollar (USD) has advanced by 0.5% against the Euro (USD/EUR) and the South African Rand (USD/ZAR) today, but has made no headway against the Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) and fallen by -0.9% against the Australian Dollar (USD/AUD).
The ‘Buck’ is likely to have been affected by the ongoing commodity crash that has been damaging the US’s energy companies, along with the longer-term ramifications of the Fed’s looming Interest Rate Decision.
GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rate Forecast: BoE Decision to Dominate Today, Lesser US Data Due
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to have the lion’s share of exchange rate movement in the near future as the last Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision of the year is due at noon. The BoE is not expected to raise the interest rate itself, but any signs in the simultaneously released minutes that a rate hike is coming sooner rather than later could bolster the Pound considerably against the competition.
The Euro (EUR) is likely to move in the near future after the delivery of speeches from the ECB’s Benoit Coeure and Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann, while the US Dollar’s (USD) movement is only likely to be caused by Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims results for the last week of November and the first week of December.
Current GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.3843, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7226, the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.5180, the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6588, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7225 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9119 today.