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Can the Pound Euro Exchange Rate Climb with the Supreme Court Verdict Creating Scottish Concerns?

2017 is shaping up to be just as interesting for the Pound Euro exchange rate as 2016, with the repercussions of  last year’s decision to vote to exit the European Union beginning to be felt.

  • GBP EUR rate rises to 1.17 – EUR GBP rate falls to 0.85
  • Pound rallies after Supreme Court decision – Amendments could soften Brexit blow
  • Euro weakened by Ifo printings – German central bank speech incoming

The Pound has seen a reversal of fortunes against the Euro today, rising by 0.3% in the pairing despite no new UK news coming out. As well as investors coming around to the idea of MP amendments to the Article 50 bill making Brexit less damaging, the GBP EUR rise can also be attributed to Euro weakness.

The Euro has dropped in the wake of Ifo confidence scores for Germany, which have fallen in January for business conditions and expectations and only risen marginally for current conditions.

The next Eurozone news to watch out for will be this afternoon’s speech from Jens Weidmann, the President of German central bank Bundesbank.

(Last updated January 25th, 2017)

With the Supreme Court delivering its verdict on Article 50, Brexit concerns were the main cause of Pound Euro exchange rate movement as the week continued. Further speculation surrounding the UK’s planned exit from the EU is also likely to inspire further volatility.

The decision drew heavy media attention and, because of a particular reference to devolved nations, it’s impact on financial markets wasn’t quite as expected.

So, what happened to the GBP EUR exchange rate?

Pound Down on Scottish Independence Fears, Euro Weakened by Fed Rate Hike Bets

Yesterday saw the Pound edge up against the Euro towards the end of the European trading session, though the GBP EUR exchange rate fluctuated notably over most of the day’s trading.

For the Pound, the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Parliament voting on Article 50 had a sting in the tail, as it included a supposed snub of the devolved nations.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was quick to point this out and again hinted at another independence referendum, which limited Sterling demand considerably.

Data which drove the Euro included Eurozone PMI flashes for January, which fell in the services and composite fields but rose for manufacturing.

Later, the Euro dropped against the Pound when US manufacturing rose by more than expected, which raised the chances of the Federal Reserve increasing the US interest rate in the near-term.

Such an outcome would likely boost the US Dollar, weakening the Euro in consequence.

GBP EUR Exchange Rate Predictions: What Next for the Pound in 2017?

After a day of high drama and speculation over the Court’s verdict yesterday, the Pound Euro exchange rate may find itself trading under calmer conditions today.

Aside from any unexpected Government announcements on the Article 50 bill today, the greatest level of GBP movement this morning is likely to occur on Confederation of British Industry (CBI) business optimism index scores and industrial trends for orders, covering Q1 and January respectively.

Both figures were disappointing previously, but it would take significant positive movement to give the Pound much of a lift.

Outside of this news, the afternoon will bring a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney, who may provide a forecast on future UK economic movement.

Euro Pound Demand Forecast to Rise if German Confidence Climbs

The day’s major Eurozone news to watch out for is due shortly – the morning’s Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations scores for January.

At the time of writing, forecasts were positive across the board and a trio of rises could well see the Pound Euro exchange rate stumble.

Other Eurozone news today will include a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) official Daniele Nouy and later remarks from Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann.

Current Interbank Pound Euro Exchange Rates

At the time of writing, the Pound Euro  exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.16 and the Euro Pound (EUR GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.85.