The Euro has risen slightly against the US Dollar today, but remains near a weekly low due to disappointing Eurozone news.
- EUR USD rate rises to 1.0872 – USD EUR trades down at 0.9195
- German GDP rise less-than-expected – Industrial production stats miss forecasts
- US Dollar dips on Comey concerns – Trump admits ‘that Russia thing’ factored into firing
- Eurozone GDP and inflation in focus next week – Will further Trump fallout impact USD?
Weak Eurozone data has limited Euro trading today, with the EUR/USD exchange rate only rising marginally. The latest decline to 1.0872 puts the Euro down from its opening rate on Monday of 1.0967.
German GDP stats for Q1 showed an estimated rise from 0.4% to 0.6% on the quarter, lower than the expected 0.7%. Elsewhere, Eurozone monthly industrial production figures showed contraction in April instead of the expected growth. Annual production also rose by less-than-expected.
These poor results have failed to cause Euro to US Dollar losses, however, with the surprise sacking of FBI Director James Comey still lowering US confidence.
Donald Trump has recently admitted that ‘this Russia thing’ was part of the reason for firing Comey, which lowers confidence in his future decision making. Trump’s account of events also differs from White House officials, which raises further questions about his leadership.
Next week will be packed with Eurozone data releases, but the biggest will be confined to Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.
Starting off Euro movement will be Tuesday’s Italian and Eurozone GDP growth figures for the first quarter. Annual Eurozone GDP is predicted to slow from 1.8% to 1.7%, which may limit Euro demand. Also out on Tuesday will be a ZEW German economic sentiment index, which could conversely boost the EUR/USD exchange rate if it rises.
Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation will be considered in the context of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hikes. Annual inflation in April is forecast to rise from 1.5% to 1.9%, which could boost Euro demand. The ECB’s outlook is still cautious, but consistently rising inflation will pressure the central bank to eventually act on interest rates.
Ending weekly Eurozone news will be May’s consumer confidence flash. This previously dropped by -3.6 points, so a positive figure may be necessary to boost late-week Euro demand.
There will be a similarly broad spread of US data next week, with the biggest announcements concerning crude oil stocks, and jobless claims.
If Wednesday’s crude oil figures show falling stocks then oil prices could rise, benefitting US exporters and the US economy.
Thursday’s claims figures could also boost US Dollar demand, if they show reductions in the number of people claiming benefits.
Outside of these planned releases, the US Dollar could also be impacted by any developments in the ‘Comey scandal’. If it looks like confidence is waning further over Donald Trump’s decision, the US Dollar may dip against the Euro.
Current Interbank EUR USD Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate was trading up at 1.0873 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD EUR) exchange rate was trading down at 0.9195.
