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Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Remains Firm despite German Trade Balance Decline

  • Euro remains at 1.12 against US Dollar – German trade balance falls in July
  • US Dollar climbs on rising credit figure – Fed speeches incoming
  • Eurozone data to focus on Greek production figures – PT trade balance also due

The Euro has lost its grip on a number of gains against peers today, although as of writing remains positive against the US Dollar. Eurozone data has focused on the July trade balance for Germany, which has seen a major decline from 24.7bn to 19.5bn.

The US Dollar has recovered since yesterday, in the wake of July’s consumer credit change showing a considerable rise from 14.53bn to 17.71bn.

Looking ahead, the Euro may be influenced by Greece’s negatively forecast industrial production result on the year in July, while the August inflation rate is expected to shift from -1% to -0.8% on the year. Additionally, Portugal’s trade balance for July is due; this is expected to show a deficit reduction.

From the US, a pair of speeches from Fed officials Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan are expected over the afternoon.

(Last updated September 9th, 2016)

US Dollar movement was generally disappointing yesterday, with evidence of falling claims in August and September doing little to inspire confidence in the ‘Buck’.

Euro Exchange Rate News: Single Currency Appreciates after Markets Underestimate ECB Dovishness

The Euro rose progressively against its rivals yesterday, starting on a strong footing and making further advances against its peers over the course of the day. The catalyst for this later rise was the ECB interest rate decision and following press conference.

The rate remained static at 0%, while despite widespread assumptions that Draghi would unveil fresh easing measures, the central bank head was strangely muted on matters. Draghi instead directed attention towards Eurozone nations themselves having some say in solving their own economic problems.

This was particularly evidenced when Draghi closed of another boilerplate line by saying;

‘Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth’.

US Dollar Remains Weak after Claims Fall over August-September

The US Dollar failed to make much in the way of progress, having been weakened against its peers by continual concerns that the Fed either won’t or shouldn’t hike the national interest rate in September.

Although Fed official Jeffrey Lacker recently argued that there is a ‘strong case’ for a September rate hike, the circumstances have gone against validating such an attitude.

In particular, a recent report showed that fewer US students are enrolling in college, and recent initial and continuing jobless claims figures have remained high over early September and late August, respectively. Claims did fall more-than-forecast, however.

In particular, the initial figure has shown a dip from 263k to 259k, while the continuing stat has dropped from 2151 to 2144.

Future EUR USD Forecast: German Trade Balance and Fed Speech Out Tomorrow

The next Eurozone data to watch out for will arrive tomorrow morning, in the form of the July trade balance for Germany. As of writing, this has been forecast to show a surplus reduction from 24.9bn to 20.7bn.

From the US, a speech from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member Eric Rosengren is expected, which is due to come in during the early afternoon.

Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates

The Euro US Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1280 and the US Dollar Euro (USD EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8867 today.