The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has risen since earlier and is now seeing a 0.5% advantage for the common currency (EUR).
‘Greenback’ may Regain Control Tomorrow if Eurozone Data disappoints, vice versa for US Data
The Euro (EUR) has gained considerably against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today after the US Initial Jobless Claims for the start of August and Leading Indicators for July both failed to meet expectations. The former figure saw a 277K claim rise, and the latter indicated a predicted -0.2% decline for the US economy in the future. The Leading Indicators result was particularly bad, as expectations had been for a 0.2% increase.
The ‘Greenback’ (USD) has the opportunity to recover tomorrow if the German and Eurozone Consumer Confidence surveys for September and August show an unexpected decline, and the US Manufacturing PMI for August indicates an above forecast rise.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has seen a marginal rise today, as both currencies react to major events that occurred last night.
‘Greenback’ May Take the Lead Today if US Claims are Show major Decline
The Euro (EUR) has gained marginally against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today, as speculators analyse the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the news that Greece has managed to secure an eleventh-hour bailout agreement.
The minutes from the Fed are broadly positive, but for the most part, it seems to be ‘business as usual’. In a similar scene to the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes released earlier in the month, only one Fed president voted to increase the US interest rate, and the rest of the committee made nebulous remarks about a rate hike taking place ‘soon’.
For the Euro, the day’s biggest affecter will be the aftermath of the successful bailout agreement, which was finalised by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) last night. As this apparently secures Greece’s place in the Eurozone for the time being, the next big question is: Who will be leading Greece? Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been rumoured to be planning a snap election to ‘purge’ his party of dissenters, but given the level of unrest displayed within Tspiras’ party, it remains a distinct possibility that he himself will be ejected on the grounds of no confidence.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has failed to make any headway today ahead of key events for both currencies.
Greek Bailout Plan faces Final Barrier as EUR/USD Exchange Rate Flatlines
The Euro (EUR) has trended narrowly against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today after a crucial vote in the Bundestag was passed. The vote was to determine if the German parliament approved or rejected the current Greek bailout deal and talks of dissent and rebellion among the majority Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party didn’t ease opinions of proceedings. As it stood, the vote was passed with a count of 454 for, 113 against and 18 abstentions. With this vote secured, the Greek bailout deal only faces the judgment of the European Stability Mechanism (composed of Eurozone finance ministers) tonight.
The Euro fell by -0.4% against the Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF) today and saw a greater loss of -0.5% against the Indian Rupee (GBP/INR). Elsewhere, the common currency has trended in a narrow range.
USD/EUR Declines ahead of Stagnant Forecast for US Inflation
The US Dollar (USD) has trended in a narrow range against the Euro (USD/EUR) today and elsewhere the ‘Greenback’ has seen an overall decline. It is possible that the Euro (EUR) is the cause of this dry-up of demand for the safe-haven currency as the potential for a boost in Eurozone confidence later on will reflect negatively on the US Dollar. Confidence in the US Dollar has not been helped by the poor forecasts for the US CPI results due later today.
The US Dollar has fallen by -0.4% against the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) and has seen a greater decline of -0.5% against the Indian Rupee (USD/INR). However, the US currency has seen a rise of 0.3% against the Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK).
Euro May Trounce US Dollar if US Inflation Doesn’t Increase
As it stands, the Euro (EUR) is likely to gain against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today, as predictions for the US annual CPI rates for July haven’t been outstanding, with a 0.1% increase predicted in the overall figure and stagnation at 1.8% in the CPI Excluding Food and Energy result. While these rates are forecast to remain healthy for the US economy, the fact that they are expected to remain below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% is no cause for celebration as the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike remains a bone of contention among speculators.
Assuming that the Greek bailout deal is sealed tonight, the Euro can hardly be expected to decline and at a minimum, minor gains are expected for the single currency.
Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1038 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9063 today.