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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Expectations of ECB Easing Weigh on Single Currency

Euro (EUR) Volatility Predicted Today on Upcoming Eurozone Confidence Surveys

With no fresh US data due for release ahead of the weekend the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is on a slight uptrend. Fresh volatility is likely later this morning with the release of a raft of Eurozone confidence figures, with any weakening of sentiment set to push the Euro lower against rivals. At present the EUR/USD exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.0612.


With the US Dollar (USD) strengthened on the back of a strong Durable Goods Orders figure, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been on a downtrend today.

Disappointing US Personal Consumption Expenditure Failed to Dampen US Dollar (USD) Demand after Bullish Durable Goods Orders

In advance of today’s Thanksgiving holiday, a raft of major US economic data was released on Wednesday, prompting increased volatility for the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate. Traders were initially discouraged by a weaker-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditure Core, which forms the main inflation gauge of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and a downwardly revised University of Michigan Confidence Index. However, the October Durable Goods Orders report proved to be substantially stronger than forecast, rising from -0.8% to 3.0% on the month to indicate continued economic robustness.

With the odds of an imminent interest rate rise from the FOMC generally supported by this data, the US Dollar (USD) was prompted onto a bullish run against rivals, pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate to a seven-month low of 1.0577.

Euro Currency News: EUR Softened Today on ECB QE Speculation

The Euro (EUR), meanwhile, has been increasingly weighed down by speculation over the outcome of next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting. Policymakers are purported to have been discussing a number of different quantitative easing measures in advance of the decision, including an expansion to the current bond buying program and the imposition of harsher negative rates against banks to encourage lending. The relative uncertainty over how far the central bank will go with its latest monetary loosening measures has been generally discouraging pundits.

As the common currency has already been softened by the persistent bullishness of the ‘Greenback’, the dovish signals of the ECB have pushed the Euro lower against many of the majors on Thursday.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: German Retail Sales Predicted to Decline as Euro Downtrends ahead of ECB Decision

There is unlikely to be any significant shift for the EUR/USD pairing ahead of the weekend, as the latest Eurozone confidence surveys are not anticipated to show any particular uptick in positive sentiment. Monday’s German Retail Sales are equally unlikely to offer support for the ailing Euro, with forecasts suggesting a decline in consumer demand.

Ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy decision, the single currency is largely expected to struggle to regain any particular ground against the ‘Greenback’, as the increasing prospect of a monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB weighs on the Euro.

Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates

At time of writing, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was slumped in the region of 1.0613, while the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) pairing made gains around 0.9419.