The Euro (EUR) has declined by -0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) this morning, following Germany’s Inflation Rate figures for December meeting with forecasts and merely reprinting on previous positive figures.
Greater Distribution of Eurozone Data Still to Come, Potential for Euro (EUR) Rally
The near future will see the release of the Eurozone’s January ZEW Surveys of Economic Sentiment, along with the currency bloc’s Inflation Rate stats for December. At the time of writing, forecasts were mixed, therefore a defying rise in results across the board could bolster the Euro’s (EUR) appeal considerably in the immediate aftermath.
The Euro (EUR) has remained within its starting slump for the entirety of the day today, therefore it seems that barring any overnight fluctuations, investors will have to wait until tomorrow’s Eurozone inflation rate results are released.
Eurozone Inflation Rate Stats due Early Tomorrow along with Germany ZEW Surveys
In addition to the earlier mentioned German ZEW surveys, CPI data covering the entirety of the Eurozone as well as specific countries is also scheduled for release. As of writing, forecasts have largely been for repeat occurrences of prior figures, both for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole.
The Euro (EUR) has failed to make any kind of a comeback against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today, having generally been on a solid downtrend since the European trading session opened.
VW Ghost Rises from the Grave to Unnerve Investors in Single Currency (EUR)
The Euro’s (EUR) failure to get onto a positive track today is partly due to the simple lack of supportive data, but also the presence of a news story that has dragged up further devaluation for the Euro.
This is the development that dozens of shareholders in Volkswagen intend to sue the company, in retaliation for the massive dive in share values that occurred when news of the emissions scandal first broke.
The Euro (EUR) has fallen by -0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD), with the news that approximately €2bn is being pledged to solve France’s unemployment situation failing to gain much traction with investors.
Large-Scale Policy Measures come when Rising Unemployment Remains on the Cards
While French President Francois Hollande’s most recent announcement is still very much hot off the presses, it is worth noting that before the news arrived, the French Unemployment Rate was at 10.6%, with expectations for the next movement to be a rise to 10.7%.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has deteriorated today, with the shortage of economic data prompting economists to speculate on the future trials to be faced by the Eurozone.
EUR/USD Exchange Rate News: German Pessimism and Oil Price Woes Prevalent Today
The Euro (EUR) has fallen against almost all of its competitors so far today, with a rise of 0.3% against the Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF) representing the only real gain for the common currency so far.
With scarcely any high impact economic publications coming out of the Eurozone today, the eyes of investors have instead been turned to the plunging price of crude oil per barrel, which has failed to advance above the $30 mark over the weekend. As a historically low price, this has lowered the Eurozone inflation expectations of economists such as IHS’s Howard Archer, who has predicted: ‘If it stays lower for longer [the commodity price] could further reduce inflation expectations’.
Elsewhere, Financial Times Associate Editor Wolfgang Munchau has identified that Germany faces a number of threats to its economy in 2016, which include growing discontent with the newly arrived refugee population, the pressure faced by the country as the most prominent member of the Eurozone and an ongoing aura of uncertainty from the still-unresolved VW emissions scandal of 2015.
Euro losses have included -0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) and -0.5% against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) and the Indian Rupee (EUR/INR).
US Dollar (USD) Steady as Recession Fears are Quashed by Leading Economist
The US Dollar (USD) has been making positive movement against a majority of its competitors so far today, with the lack of economic activity due to Martin Luther King Day failing to discourage positive speculation on the value of the ‘Buck’.
Speaking yesterday, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said of the US economy: ‘We are experiencing a lot of volatility. Growth and wages are lower than where we could’ve been, but let’s not forget it’s an economy that creates a lot of jobs’.
Looking ahead to the possible actions of the Federal Reserve, El-Erian forecasted cautiously, stating: ‘It’s a shallow hiking cycle. It will end much lower [than previous cycles]’.
Among the gains seen by the US Dollar today have been 0.2% against the Euro (USD/EUR), 0.4% against the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) and 0.6% against the Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK). These gains are a welcome change for supporters, particularly compared with last week’s generally bearish behaviour from the US currency.
EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Chinese GDP and German ZEW Survey Due Tomorrow
With little to look forward to today, it seems that investors will instead have to wait until early tomorrow for any notable exchange rate movement between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD).
The first currency to shift is likely to be the US Dollar, given that China’s high impact Q4 GDP printings are scheduled for release very early on. With the Fed still keeping a close eye on the Chinese economy, ‘Buck’ supporters will be more satisfied with a rise in China’s statistics than a fall.
The Eurozone’s contribution will come later on, with Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment in January set for release in the morning. Unfortunately for the Euro, current expectations are for a major reduction in the score from 16.1 points to 7.9.
Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.0903 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9178 today.