The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has gained slightly today, after German data releases showed mixed results.
US Dollar’s (USD) Performance to be decided by Crucial Payroll Figures
The Euro (EUR) has risen by 0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today. These minor gains for the common currency come after a mixed set of results; the German yearly Industrial Production figure for June showed a drop in growth from 2.4% down to 0.6%, but the German June Trade Balance figure saw a rise from 19.5bn to 24bn.
The performance of the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) is set to be decided later today after the release of the US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figure for July. Forecasts have been mixed on the outcome, and any significant deviation from the previous total is likely to be a cause of significant decline or advancement for many of the major global currencies. A drop in the figure would strengthen the Euro against the Dollar, as it would discourage opinions that an interest rate hike will take place in the near-future. The opposite of this scenario is also possible, and speculation over the US Dollar is likely to dominate thoughts until the data is released today.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has remained unfavourable today after the release of a damning analysis of Greece’s future in the Eurozone.
US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate to be decided by Impending US Data Releases
The Euro (EUR) trended narrowly against the US Dollar (USD) today, a continuation of yesterday’s poor performance for the common currency. Although Greek Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras said today that ‘Despite the difficulties we are facing, we hope this agreement can end uncertainty on the future of Greece’, these uncertainties clearly remain. The Euro’s greatest gain today has been a 0.4% rise against the Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN), amid a lacklustre performance elsewhere for the common currency.
The balance in the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate is likely to be dependent on the release of the US July Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figure tomorrow; a significant rise will encourage the Fed to raise the interest rate earlier in the year, but an unexpected decline may put them off the decision for the next month, at least. Ahead of this, the US Claims data is due today, and any reaction to this may prove an indicator of the Fed’s overall mood ahead of tomorrow’s data releases.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has fallen today after an analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that there was still a ‘large chance’ of a ‘Grexit’.
Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Dives after NIESR Report Sets Greek Economy below Pre-EU Level until 2023
Today has been fairly disastrous for the Euro’s (EUR) performance; the common currency fell by -0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) and the Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD), and saw a greater loss of -0.3% against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), the Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) and the Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN).
The NIESR report is full of disheartening figures; Principle Research Fellow Simon Kirby identified the Greek debt crisis as a historic one, saying ‘You have to go back to the Great Depression to find economies hit harder by crisis.’ Worse still, Research Fellow Jack Meaning said that ‘We don’t see Greece getting back to the [economic] level it was when it joined the Euro in 2001, let alone anywhere where it was before this crisis struck…this is a prolonged and severe depression for Greece.’
US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate Stabilises after Possible US Interest Rate Hike Supported by Federal Reserve Comments
The US Dollar (USD) has gained momentum today, rising by over 0.2% against the Euro (USD/EUR) and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), and seeing a greater gain of 0.5% against the South African Rand (USD/ZAR). This is a marked improvement on yesterday’s performance by the ‘Greenback’, where the currency fell amid concerns that disappointing US growth data would put the Fed’s interest rate hike decision back to next year.
The biggest boost for the US Dollar today has come after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said ‘It will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead’. This optimistic outlook is an echo of last week’s statement by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who said the US economy was ‘in good shape’ for a rate increase this year.
Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Data Remains Key Factor in Ultimate ‘Greenback’ Performance This Week
The performance of the Euro (EUR) for the rest of this week is likely to be in Germany’s hands; the German Construction and Retail PMI data for July is due tomorrow, and Friday will see the release of the German Trade balance for June, which has been optimistically forecast to rise.
For the US Dollar (USD), Friday will be a crucial point in the Fed’s decision making process; the Unemployment Rate and Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figures are due out on that day, and while predictions are for a marginal increase in the former figure, forecasts are mixed for the latter; a significant gain could practically guarantee a rate hike in September, while an unexpected shortfall may discourage the Fed from any major activity with the US interest rate this year.
Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.0856 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9215 today.