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Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: Will UK Inflation Fall into Negative Territory?

At the close of last week, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate strengthened by around 0.15%.

After Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Andrew Haldane warned that the current climate of low inflation has made rate hikes and cuts a balanced likelihood, the Pound slumped versus the majority of its most traded currency rivals.

The shared currency, meanwhile, advanced versus many of its major peers at the close of last week. This is due to easing tensions regarding a Greek exit from the Eurozone after Athens agreed to draft a reform program to please creditors.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Fluctuate on Geopolitics

Given that the situation between Greece and its creditors has been something of a rollercoaster ride; it is unlikely that the tensions will have completely abated by the end of the coming week. Therefore, domestic data is likely to be less impactful with trader focus firmly set on the debt-ridden European country.

However, for those invested in the common currency, the following should be of interest: Eurozone Consumer Confidence, German Manufacturing PMI, German Services PMI, German Composite PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Services PMI, Eurozone Composite PMI, German IFO Current Assessment, German IFO Business Climate, German IFO Expectations, German Consumer Confidence Survey and German Retail Sales.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast to Fluctuate on Domestic Data

With British economic data forecast to produce a mixed-bag of results over the coming week, the Pound is likely to fluctuate versus its most traded currency competitors. Should inflation data print positively, however, it could spark a bullish run.

In terms of influential data, the Consumer Price Index will be of most significance. This is especially true after the BoE’s chief economist predicted that inflation would continue trending lower into negative territory.

In addition to inflation data, CBI Trends Total Orders, CBI Trends Selling Prices, BBA Loans for House Purchase, Retail Sales, Retail Sales including Auto and CBI Reported Sales will be of interest to those trading with the Pound.

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7238 at the close of last week. 

Should the common currency decline it ought to be beneficial for the UK thanks to cheaper imports.

With BoE officials differing in opinion as to how much low inflation will affect rate revisions, any speech from policymakers will be closely scrutinised by traders.

If the relationship between Greece and creditors takes a turn for the worse, or if they can’t find an amicable agreement, the Euro is likely to depreciate significantly.