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Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: UK Unemployment Rate Falls to Brighten Pound Outlook

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Retreats as Greek General Strike Provokes Fresh Bailout Fears Today

This morning has seen the Euro (EUR) continue to retreat across the board, as Greece is brought to a standstill by an anti-austerity general strike. Although European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is speaking before the European Parliament today this is unlikely to offer any particular support for the common currency, unless the policymaker proves surprisingly hawkish. As such, the EUR/GBP exchange rate is slumping in the range of 0.7054.


Failing to offer particular support to the chances of a nearer-term interest rate move from the Bank of England (BoE), today’s raft of UK employment data has shored up the EUR/GBP exchange rate on Pound (GBP) dovishness.

News of Latest Greek Bailout Delay and Political Turmoil in Portugal Weigh on the Euro (EUR)

Financial uncertainty has returned to the Eurozone this week, as Eurogroup finance ministers failed to sign off on the latest tranche of Greek bailout funds and Portugal’s centre-right government was ousted by an anti-austerity left-wing coalition. Greece has been struggling to agree with creditors over a proposed reform to foreclosure laws, lowering the value threshold on houses covered by repossession laws. As such this latest snag has seen the 2 billion Euro (EUR) payment delayed, throwing the credibility of the Hellenic nation’s third bailout program into question and denting the outlook of the common currency.

Although sentiment towards the Pound (GBP) has remained somewhat muted following Thursday’s more dovish than expected Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting and Inflation Report, this did not prevent it from capitalising on the weakness of the Euro. Consequently the EUR/GBP exchange rate slumped to a multi-day low of 0.7070.

Pound Sterling Currency News: GBP Softens Today after UK Average Weekly Earnings Shortfall

Wednesday’s raft of UK data has been of a rather mixed nature, as growth in Average Weekly Earnings failed to accelerate in the three months to September. The October Claimant Count Change proved more dovish, rising for a second consecutive month as 3,300 additional people signed on for unemployment benefit. While the domestic Unemployment Rate did unexpectedly sink, clocking in at 5.3% rather than 5.4%, this was not sufficiently strong to outweigh the weaker performance of other figures. Traders who had been hoping that a more positive round of figures could prompt the BoE into considering a nearer-term increase in interest rates were thus disappointed, sending Sterling into a general downtrend.

EUR/GBP Exchange Rate Forecast: Eurozone GDP Predicted to Rise to Bolster Euro Demand

The EUR/GBP exchange rate is not likely to experience further volatility ahead of Friday’s third quarter Gross Domestic Product readings from both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. As pundits expect a solid uptick in growth on the year this could provide a strong rallying point for the single currency. Should Greece fail to reach an agreement with creditors and break the current deadlock by the end of the week, however, the Euro could be hit by a fresh wave of caution over Eurozone stability fears.

As data from the UK will be rather sparse ahead of the weekend the Pound is likely to remain softened in the wake of this latest round of disappointment.

Current EUR, GBP Exchange Rates

At time of writing, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was making gains in the range of 0.7100, while the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) pairing slumped in the region of 1.4083.