The Euro to Pound exchange rate is edging higher during today’s session as the Pound falls back from a 13-month high against the Euro.
At the time of writing the EUR/GBP exchange rate is trading at around 0.8564.
Euro (EUR) Capitalises on Volatility with US Dollar
The Euro has been pushing higher against the Pound today due to the currency’s negative correlation with the US Dollar and hopes that the EU will vaccinate the majority of its populations by the end of June.
As US yields pullback and the quick economic recovery expected from the USA from coronavirus causes investors to seek riskier-assets, the Euro has been able to push forwards.
However, with a surge in coronavirus cases across the Eurozone and renewed lockdowns plaguing the bloc the Euro’s gains could be short-lived.
France entered a third national lockdown on Saturday which includes a curfew imposed between the hours of 19:00 and 06:00, and from this morning people will also need a valid reason to travel more than six miles from their homes.
Italy has also entered a stricter lockdown as the country records over 20,000 new cases a day and all regions now in the red zone, the highest tier of restrictions, with many regions expected to remain the red or orange zone by the end of April.
Speaking to an Italian newspaper, Interior Minister Luciana Lamorgese said:
‘This is not the time to lower our guard, and to let go of that sense of responsibility shown so far. Because the progress recorded by the campaign for vaccines finally gives a glimpse of a different horizon that will allow us to gradually return to normal.’
Pound (GBP) Supported by Confidence in UK Lockdown Easing
The Pound has been broadly supported today following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s confirmation that the second stage of England’s lockdown easing will begin on the 12th April.
Outdoor hospitality, gyms and hairdressers will be able to reopen from next week though outdoor gatherings remain limited at 6 people or 2 households.
Speaking alongside Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the Prime Minister said:
‘I will be going to the pub myself and cautiously but irreversibly raising a pint of beer to my lips.’
Investors remain cautiously optimistic surrounding England’s lockdown easing and the UK’s economic recovery from coronavirus in the coming months.
However, news that the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) are looking into the link between blood clots and the AstraZeneca vaccine has caused slight concern, though MHRA CEO June Raine urged people to get their jabs, saying:
‘Our thorough and detailed review is ongoing into reports of very rare and specific types of blood clots with low platelets following the Covid-19 vaccine AstraZeneca. No decision has yet been made on any regulatory action.’
Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Outlook: Services PMIs in Focus
For Euro investors, tomorrow will see the release of the final services PMI from the Eurozone for March. An increase of 3 points is expected in the services sector, which although remains in contraction, edges ever closer to growth territory which could bolster EUR.
Tomorrow will also see the release of the UK’s final services PMI reading for March which is expected to show the first expansion in the service sector since October 2020 with a growth of 7 points.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate will continue to be driven by any further coronavirus developments in the coming days, if the UK’s medical regulator does chose to impose restrictions on the AstraZeneca vaccine, the Pound could suffer.