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Euro to New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Movement Forecast Ahead of RBNZ Decision

Last week’s European Central Bank Policy Meeting, and the financial authority’s decision to refrain from introducing any additional stimulus, pushed the Euro higher against the majority of its most traded currency counterparts.

The Euro largely held gains over the weekend and began Monday’s European session in a stronger position against peers like the US and New Zealand Dollars.

The New Zealand Dollar came under pressure following the release of a surprisingly good US non-farm payrolls report.

According to market strategist Kymberly Martin; ‘The New Zealand Dollar declined along with most of its peers after the release of the US payrolls report on Friday night. The delivery of a better-than-expected report boosted the US against most of its peers, the New Zealand Dollar being no exception.’

Euro gains against the ‘Kiwi’ were extended as the South Pacific asset lost appeal following the publication of disappointing Chinese trade data.

China, one of New Zealand’s main trading partners, recorded its largest trade deficit for two years.

Renewed Ukraine tensions also piled pressure on higher risk assets like the ‘Kiwi’.

New Zealand Dollar movement was restrained last week due to a lack of domestic developments, but the currency is likely to break out of its recent narrow trading range over the next five days.

On Sunday New Zealand’s manufacturing activity report showed a 6.3 per cent gain in the fourth quarter following a positively revised increase of 6.2 per cent in the third. The ‘Kiwi’ was little affected by the report, but speculation surrounding the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy meeting could see the New Zealand Dollar strengthen as the week progresses.

An encouraging economic outlook and inflation pressures are expected to push the RBNZ into becoming the first developed nation to increase interest rates and the majority of economists are forecasting a 25 basis point increase on Wednesday.

If a rate increase occurs the New Zealand Dollar may surge.

However, the central bank may also attempt to talk down the ‘Kiwi’s strength by highlighting the adverse impact of a strong local currency in its policy statement.

Today the Euro could further extend its advance on the New Zealand Dollar if the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index shows the improvement expected.

Economists have forecast that the measure advanced from 13.3 to 14 in March.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates

[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate , 
Euro,,US Dollar,1.3884 ,
Euro,,British Pound,0.8317 ,
Euro,,Australian Dollar,1.5370 ,
Euro,,New Zealand Dollar,1.6410 ,
Euro,,Canadian Dollar,1.5443 ,

As of 09:05 GMT