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Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Dairy Shortfall Drags Down ‘Kiwi’ as Common Currency Faces Fresh PMI Boost

Bailout Agreement Potential Shores up Euro (EUR) to Raise EUR/NZD Exchange Rate Further

With Greece supposedly on the cusp of agreeing a deal with creditors, according to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, the common currency was subject to a rise in optimism in the later hours of yesterday. The EUR/NZD exchange rate peaked near a weekly-high of 1.6767 in response, before traders began to hedge their bets ahead of today’s German Factory Orders and various Eurozone PMI reports.

At time of writing the EUR/NZD pairing is trending narrowly in the range of 1.6692.


A continuing decline in dairy prices eroded the value of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) today as the Euro (EUR) is bolstered on generally positive PMI data.

Stock Market Turmoil Failed to Seriously Impact the Euro, EUR/NZD Exchange Rate Rose on Softened ‘Kiwi’

Tumultuous times for both the common currency (EUR) and ‘Kiwi’ (NZD) continued this week as the stock market in China continued to fall, with the Athens market swiftly following suit when it reopened on Monday. Values in Greek stocks plunged by as much as 30% over the course of the day as trading resumed for the first time in five weeks. This did not, however, massively impact the Euro as traders held their nerve in the face of the anticipated stock chaos.

Manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone saw release on the same day, which posted as positive overall in spite of weak performances from Greece and Italy. Bolstering the single currency these saw the EUR/NZD exchange rate ultimately increase to 1.6706, and the pairing continued to trend highly throughout the Australasian session. Over the following days, however, the pairing slipped back to a low of 1.6610 before entering a period of erratic fluctuation ahead of the release of New Zealand data.

Economic Pressure Amidst Lowering Dairy Values for ‘Kiwi’ (NZD), Positive Eurozone PMIs Strengthen EUR/NZD Exchange Rate Today

Overnight the New Zealand Dollar faced increased pressure as unemployment data was revealed to be disappointing and the GlobalDairyTrade auction ushered in a lowering of dairy prices for the tenth consecutive month. Together boding very ill for the New Zealand economy, these figures are just the latest blow to be dealt to the struggling commodity currency. Consequently the EUR/NZD exchange rate was boosted to 1.6667, although movement has remained just as turbulent as it has been throughout the week so far.

Another batch of data for the Eurozone was posted today, this time the region’s Services PMIs. The final numbers indicated solidity for the German economy and expansion for Spain with the Eurozone sector growing even as France and Italy experienced a slowdown. Overall this saw the composite figure for the Eurozone come in slightly above forecast at 53.9, which is a positive result in spite of the number being a decrease on the previous month’s 54.2. If nothing else this seems to suggest that Greece is not influencing its neighbours quite so much as might have been feared.

Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Further Greek Troubles Could Prompt Downwards Movement for the Euro

Factory Orders and Industrial Production data for Germany, due out on Thursday and Friday, have the potential to push the exchange rate up further. The ‘Kiwi’, on the other hand, must rely on foreign information to drive rates in the rest of the week, with a potential turn around in Chinese figures being the biggest source of a possible boost.

The common currency’s current run could be in danger, however, as information on the state of the Greek economy and the potential timescale of full recovery begins to emerge. Although it is presently expected that creditors will be able to sign off on a third bailout package in time for the European Central Bank (ECB) repayment deadline on 20th August, the increasingly grim picture suggests that the Eurozone is not out of the woods yet as far as the impact from the Greek crisis goes.

Current EUR, NZD Exchange Rates

Presently the EUR/NZD exchange rate is at 1.6606, with the NZD/EUR trending up in the region of 0.6019.