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Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Rally on Oil Prices

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate advanced by around 0.87% on Monday morning.

With oil prices continuing to slide amid a massive supply glut, even after many US oil workers went on strike, the Canadian Dollar softened versus the majority of its most traded currency competitors.

The shared currency, meanwhile, strengthened versus many of its major peers after speculation mounted that the Swiss National Bank intent to maintain an unofficial Euro cap.

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4448.


At the close of last week, the Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate was trending between 0.9871 and 0.9908.

With geopolitical uncertainties dominating Euro trade, and with traders awaiting the launch of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing programme, domestic data had little impact on the shared currency s last week. Given that these anxieties are unlikely to ease in the near-future, there is heightened potential for the coming week’s data to have an equally mild impact on single currency movement.

For those invested in the Canadian Dollar, trade has been dominated by fluctuations in the oil market. A general declination in crude prices, however, has seen the ‘Loonie’ soften, with demand for risk-correlated currencies fizzling out rapidly.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Gain on QE

Given that there is still a while before the ECB launches its quantitative easing programme, the single currency is unlikely to be affected by domestic data unless it hugely exceeds or falls short of expectations. Should that be the case, the Euro could strengthen with little to curb the trend. With that being said, however, the possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone could weigh on Euro gains.

For those invested in the common currency, Eurozone Retail Sales, German Factory Orders, German Construction PMI, German Retail PMI, Eurozone Retail PMI and the ECB Economic Bulletin will be of interest and have the most potential to provoke changes for the Euro.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Soften on Oil Prices

Although there will be several influential domestic data publications with the potential to provoke ‘Loonie’ volatility over the coming week, seemingly bottomless oil prices are likely to weigh on demand for the commodity-correlated asset.

However, for those trading with the Canadian Dollar, the RBC Manufacturing PMI and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index may initiate ‘Loonie’ movement. Of most significance, however, will be the labour market data. The nation’s Unemployment Rate hit 6.6% previously, and Net Change in Employment saw -4,300 fewer employed than previously.

In addition to the data already mentioned, Canadian Full Time Employment Change and Building Permits data may impact upon ‘Loonie’ movement.

According to a recent report, jobs growth in Canada was at its slowest pace since 2009 in 2014. As stated by journalist Tavia Grant; ‘Statistics Canada revised its labour-force survey numbers on Wednesday both for last year and, based on more recent population counts, for the 2001-2014 period. Employment gains last year were 121,000 – or a third lower than the originally estimated increase of 186,000.’

Geopoltical developments regarding the potential for a Grexit may weigh on Euro gains, especially with the new prime minister already having an impact on other potential dissenters.

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.4345.