The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD), Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) exchange rates advanced early in Tuesday’s European trading while the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate fell after final German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
The GDP Q4 stats remained in line with forecasts of 1.6% year-on-year.
The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD), Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) exchange rates all gained in Monday’s European session while the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate fell ahead of Greece’s reform proposal.
Furthermore, some economists suggest that the proposal could be made public.
Earlier… The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD), Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD), Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) and Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rates could all fluctuate significantly in the week ahead, as Greece continues to fight for a better deal regarding its debt repayments.
Friday saw Eurozone finance ministers hold an emergency meeting to discuss Greece’s formal request for an extension on its current austerity programme until long-term plans can be set in place.
However, Friday wasn’t looking that rosy for Greece after Malta’s finance minister Edward Scicluna commented: ‘I think they’ve now reached a point where they will tell Greece: “If you really want to leave, leave”. And I think they mean it because Germany, the Netherlands and others will be hard and they will insist that Greece repays back the solidarity shown by the member states by respecting the conditions.’
EUR/CAD
The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate remained lower on Friday despite a fall in Canadian Retail Sales. The December figure contracted by -2.0% on the month—a far cry from the -0.4% forecast.
However, Thursday will be a big day for the Canadian Dollar when the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) emerges. Economists expect the annual figure to decline from 1.5% to 0.7% in January; meanwhile, the Bank of Canada inflation stat is expected to slip only slightly from 2.2% to 2.1%.
The Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7052 on Friday.
EUR/USD
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will have plenty of opportunity to fluctuate in the coming week with a wealth of influential US data due for release. However, perhaps one of the most notable pieces will be Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence number which is expected to decline from 102.9 to 100.0 in February.
Thursday will see a continuation of the weighty data when US Consumer Price Index stats are published. The US Federal Reserve recently took a more dovish tone on the topic of interest rate hikes and if inflation falls below forecasts, the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate could take a dive.
The US CPI figure is expected to tumble from 0.8% to -0.1% while the measure excluding food and energy is forecast to remain stable at 1.6%. Thursday will also see US Durable Goods Orders figures emerge—another release which will be of high influence for the US Dollar exchange rate.
Friday will close the week with the extremely significant second estimates of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption figures. In the fourth quarter, GDP is predicted to reach 2.1%, a little shy of the previous 2.6% forecast. Personal Consumption predictions are likely to remain in line with the initial 4.3% reading.
The US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8841 on Friday.
EUR/NZD
The Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) exchange rate could be in for movement on Monday when New Zealand Credit Card Spending figures emerge. Tuesday’s likely to be the most influential day for the ‘Kiwi’ with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) releasing its Two-Year Inflation Expectation.
New Zealand’s Trade Balance, out on Wednesday, is forecast to show a widening in the deficit from -1150M to -1618M in January in the year to date. New Zealand Building Permits will surface on Thursday, followed by NBNZ Business Confidence on Friday.
The New Zealand Dollar to Euro (NZD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6650 on Friday.
EUR/AUD
The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate is more likely to experience movement as a result of commodity prices in the week ahead than from Australian domestic data.
Australia will experience a quiet week with only Weekly Consumer Confidence on Monday, Australian Skilled Vacancies on Tuesday, Wage Cost Index on Wednesday and Average Weekly Wages on Thursday.
The Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6904 on Friday.
Euro Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD
The Euro could fluctuate on the release of several pieces of economic data in the week ahead, such as Thursday’s German Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate stats.
Friday could also be a major day for Euro movement when German Consumer Price Index figures are released.
Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollar (AUD, NZD) exchange rates could be influenced by Chinese ecostats such as Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) on Wednesday.
In addition, both the Trans Tasman currencies could feel the impact of any commodity price changes such as gold, copper, dairy and iron ore.
If Greek negotiations continue, even favourable Eurozone data may have a problem pulling the Euro exchange rate higher.
Tuesday has been confirmed to hold a telephone conference between Eurogroup heads to discuss Greece’s reform proposal.
On Friday, the Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate was reaching 1.4232. The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate resided at 1.4527. The Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) exchange rate was hovering at 1.5094. The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1364.
