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Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/INR – Euro to US Dollar Down 1.3% after US Interest Rate Comments


Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast – Pound Steady After Growth Figures

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate experienced minimal movement following the publication of the UK’s forth quarter growth data. The nation was shown to have expanded by 2.7% on the year and 0.5% on the quarter in the final three months of 2014, in line with economists’ expectations.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s measure of economic confidence climbed from a positively revised 101.4 in January to 102.1 in February. A reading of 102.0 had been expected.

This positive result was accompanied by below-forecast Industrial/Services confidence figures for the currency bloc.

That being said, as the European session progressed, the Pound was able to rally by around 0.5% against the common currency – with the GBP/EUR pairing achieving a high of 1.37

More notable movement in the EUR/GBP pairing are likely to occur tomorrow as Germany releases its Consumer Price Index.

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trading in the region of 0.7320.


On Wednesday the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate slumped to a fresh seven-year low as the British currency continued to derive support from the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin increasing interest rates early next year.

The comments issued by BoE Governor Mark Carney on Tuesday indicated that the central bank expects price pressures to rebound and that the current global deflationary climate won’t deter it from raising borrowing costs.

Sterling also advanced to an eight-week high against the US Dollar and held gains in spite of a lack of notable UK reports.

Although today’s German Consumer Confidence and Unemployment figures were stronger-than-expected, murmurs of discontent from Germany prevented Euro gains.

It was reported by Reuters News Agency that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble envisages the Greek aid extension being ditched if the Hellenic nation fails to adhere to its commitments.

The EUR/GBP currency pair could experience further movement in the hours ahead if the UK’s fourth quarter growth figure is positively (or negatively) revised.

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trading in the region of 0.7310


Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast – US Durable Goods Orders Climb, Euro Plummets

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate fell by around 1.3% following the release of several influential economic reports for the US.

The nation’s inflation figures largely printed in line with expectations, but Durable Goods Orders were shown to have increased by considerably more than predicted, jumping by 2.8% on the month. A 1.6% rise had been expected.

However, the US Dollar’s broad-based gains were mainly due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Official James Bullard.

Bullard asserted that the Fed needs to ditch the ‘patience’ aspect of its rhetoric on interest rates. He remarked; ‘There’s too much focus about the first move. It’s really the path of rates that matter. I’d be for starting a little bit earlier on the normalisation process. It’s not tightening. It’s still going to be a very accommodative policy even if we move off zero.’

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.1207


Prior to the publication of potentially influential US inflation data, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair declined modestly from the day’s opening levels.

The Euro failed to be boosted by a surprisingly strong increase in German Consumer Confidence and a larger-than-forecast slide in domestic unemployment.

The measure of German sentiment surged to 9.7 in March from 9.3 in February, exceeding estimates for a reading of 9.5.

Additionally, the number of unemployed persons in Germany was shown to have fallen by -20,000 in February – double the decline expected. The nation’s unemployment rate held at a seasonally adjusted 6.5%.

Today’s US Consumer Price Index has the potential to initiate notable EUR/USD volatility.

If the pace of US inflation slows by more than projected (and pushes back Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations in the process) the Euro could recoup losses against the ‘Greenback’ over the course of the local session.

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.1350


Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast – ‘Aussie’ Holds Chinese Manufacturing Gain

Earlier in the week the Australian Dollar advanced on several of its most traded currency counterparts as investors considered the possibility of US interest rates remaining lower for longer.

The ‘Aussie’ also strengthened against peers like the Euro as a result of a China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index pushing back above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

The Australian Dollar largely held these gains on Thursday in spite of domestic private capital expenditure falling by -2.2% in the fourth quarter following growth of 0.6% in the third.

Before the weekend further EUR/AUD exchange rate movement could be caused by Australia’s private sector credit and German retail sales data.

The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.4393


Euro to Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) Exchange Rate Forecast – Rupee Bolstered by Fed Interest Rate Speculation

After Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen adopted a rather cautious tone when discussing the timeline for increasing US interest rates, higher risk currencies like the Rupee gained.

The thought of the US maintaining lower borrowing costs for longer increased the appeal of emerging-market assets and the Rupee also advanced on the Pound and US Dollar.

The Rupee approached a three-week high against the US Dollar, prompting this response from one industry expert; ‘There is no special development in the local market. The only impact has been from Yellen’s testimony overnight which has supported the Rupee and other emerging-market currencies.’

The EUR/INR currency pair posted an additional 0.15% decline on Thursday as various European officials questioned the likely success of the extension to Greece’s aid programme.

With Indian data in short supply, further Euro to Rupee currency shifts will be the result of European news and international developments.

The Euro to Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) exchange rate was trading in the region of 70.2070