The Euro has made minor gains against the Australian Dollar today, but remains vulnerable to mixed Eurozone data releases
- EUR AUD rate rises to 1.4864 – AUD EUR trades down at 0.6726
- Euro in mixed demand on confidence scores – Uncertainty over German economic conditions
- Australian Dollar flops on NAB confidence stats – Sector remains ‘upbeat’
- Euro could rally on Greek debt deal – Further AUD upset possible on Westpac stats
Trading around 1.4864, the Euro remains in a weak position against the Australian Dollar, having slumped from June’s opening high of 1.5198.
Euro makes Cautious Gains on ZEW Confidence Data
The main source of Euro gains today have been ZEW confidence scores for June, covering Germany and the overall Eurozone.
In the former case, the German economic sentiment index has risen, but a measure of optimism about current conditions has fallen.
Potentially providing a greater source of support, the Eurozone economic sentiment index has risen from 35.1 points to 37.7.
Australian Dollar Flops on Waning Business Confidence
The latest Australian Dollar losses have been triggered by a decline in the NAB business confidence score for May.
Responding to the news, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster looked on the bright side;
‘The business sector is [still] looking quite upbeat, maintaining the apparent disconnect with a rather melancholy household sector’.
EUR AUD Forecast: Euro Advance Possible on Greek Debt Talks
High-impact Eurozone data on Wednesday will cover employment changes and industrial production in the Eurozone.
For the industrial figures, a monthly rise but annual drop are forecast. Further ahead, Thursday will bring Eurozone trade balance stats and a key Eurogroup meeting.
The Eurozone trade surplus is forecast to dip slightly, which may weaken Euro demand. The Eurogroup meeting will focus on the Greek debt crisis, which remains a contentious issue.
In a positive development, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble has been optimistic about the meeting, declaring;
‘We’ll manage it on Thursday. You’ll see’.
The aim is to secure a deal between Greece and its international creditors, so that the next round of bailout funding can be unlocked.
The next Australian data to watch out for will be confidence figures, as with today. The next stats will come from Westpac, covering consumer confidence in June. Previously in May, confidence dipped by -1.1%, so a major rise may be needed to restore AUD demand.
Further ahead, Thursday’s AU jobs stats may also boost the Australian Dollar’s value.
Forecasts are currently for no change in May’s unemployment rate from 5.7%, so a surprise drop could push the AUD EUR exchange rate up. Also out on Thursday will be a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bulletin, which may bring an AUD-boosting optimistic outlook on the national economy.
Current Interbank EUR AUD Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR AUD) exchange rate was trading at 1.4869 and the Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD EUR) exchange rate was trading at 0.6723.