The Euro to Australian Dollar exchange rate (EUR/AUD) has declined on the afternoon of 2nd May, following the release of cautious Eurozone GDP data.
Q1 GDP growth estimates have been for quarterly and annual declines, from 0.7% to 0.4% and from 2.7% to 2.5% respectively.
Striking a tone of cautious optimism, Moritz Degler of Oxford Economics said;
‘The moderation in recent months was worsened by cold weather, a historically severe flu season in Germany, extensive strikes in France and other temporary factors.
‘Moving into Q2, some of these should be reversed’.
(First published 1st May, 2018)
Continued Uncertainty over US Metal Tariffs Leaves EUR/AUD Exchange Rate Static
The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate has remained close to opening levels today, on the news that the EU is not exempt from US metal tariffs.
The initial temporary exemption has expired, but the EU and other nations have been granted another 30 day exemption period to conduct talks.
Highlighting how the situation is raising uncertainty among Eurozone members, an EU spokesperson has said;
‘The US decision prolongs market uncertainty, which is already affecting business decisions.
‘The EU should be fully and permanently exempted from these measures, as they cannot be justified on the grounds of national security.
‘The EU has…consistently indicated its willingness to discuss current market access issues, but has also made clear that, as a longstanding partner and friend of the US, we will not negotiate under threat’.
Australian Dollar to Euro Exchange Rate (AUD/EUR) Steady on Cautious RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained close to the Euro (EUR) today, with neither currency being supported by recent economic news.
In Australia’s case, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision has been a cautious affair, with policymakers taking no immediate action.
In a recurrent situation, RBA officials have stated that while unemployment has fallen, there is still room for further reduction before ‘full employment’ is reached.
As such, there is little chance of any drastic adjustment in Australian monetary policy, which leaves AUD traders with little impetus to act.
In more positive news, it appears that Australia has managed to secure a permanent exemption from US metal tariffs.
The exact details of the arrangement are not clear, but Australia seems to have dodged the punitive charges along with Argentina and Brazil.
While this news would normally be supportive, the lack of Australian Dollar gains suggests that AUD traders are still concerned about the latest RBA meeting.
Euro to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: Will EUR/AUD Fall Further on Eurozone GDP Slowdown?
The Euro’s (EUR) stagnation against the Australian Dollar (AUD) could worsen in the near-term, when Eurozone PMI and GDP growth rate stats are released on 2nd May.
Predictions have been pessimistic, with analysts forecasting falling German and Eurozone manufacturing activity along with a slowdown in Q1 GDP growth.
The manufacturing stats will be finalised readings while the GDP data will only be estimates, but poor predictions may be enough to trigger a EUR/AUD decline.
The next economic data that could affect Australian Dollar exchange rates will be released on 3rd May, consisting of a services sector reading and trade balance data.
The AIG services index is predicted to show slowing activity in April, while March’s trade balance reading is tipped to show a reduction of the current surplus.
Despite the negative forecasts for upcoming Eurozone data, if the Australian stats print as expected then a late-week EUR/AUD exchange rate rise is still possible.