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EUR/USD Forecast: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Hits 1.11 after Trump Comments

  • Euro advances against US Dollar – Mixed performance elsewhere after production stats
  • US Dollar crumbles after Trump comments – Inflammatory rhetoric triggers further concerns about election outcome
  • Portuguese unemployment and inflation data incoming – US mortgages data out at noon

As trading opens during the middle of the week, the Euro has made positive motions against the US Dollar, rising by 0.2% against the ‘Buck’. Overall, the Euro has been a more mixed option, on account of June’s industrial production results falling for both Slovakia and France. More positively, Finland’s result has shown a rise from 1.9% to 4.3%.

The US Dollar has fallen against virtually all of its usual peers, on account of the latest controversy coming out of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Although not explicit, Trump was thought to have encouraged gun violence against his opponent Hillary Clinton, which has only raised further concerns about what could happen if the Republican candidate takes power.

Looking ahead, the morning will bring Portugal’s positively-predicted unemployment rate for Q2, as well as rise-estimated inflation stats for July.

The US will bring its big news shortly after, when the MBA mortgage applications up to August 5th are announced.

Data for the Eurozone is thin on the ground until the close of the week, when final German inflation figures and second quarter Eurozone growth numbers will be published.

(Last updated August 9th, 2016)

The Euro has reversed its prior lacklustre performance against the US Dollar lately, having appreciated in the area of 0.2% against the US Dollar; this has come against considerable declines in other pairings. Closing off Eurozone movement of late have been the still deficit-ridden Cypriot, Latvian and Portuguese trade balances for June.

The US Dollar has been thrown into disarray by the afternoon’s ecostats, which have damagingly showed an increasing percentage of unsold wholesale goods in June, as well as a -0.5% outcome for preliminary non-farm productivity.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Finnish and French industrial production stats on the year in June are due for release, as is the Portuguese unemployment rate. Briefly, France’s production is forecast to have increased, while Portuguese unemployment in Q2 is expected to drop from 12.4% to 11.1%.

From the US, MBA mortgage applications are due up to August 5th, with a shift from -3.5% to -0.65% on the cards.

(Last updated August 9th, 2016)

The EUR/USD exchange rate advanced to a high of 1.1096 on Tuesday, although it later eased back to trend around the day’s opening levels.

Generally speaking, demand for the Euro has been slightly higher this week as a result of several better-than-forecast ecostats for Germany.

The US Dollar has been similarly strong, in the wake of a denunciation of Donald Trump as a potential president of the United States.

Eurozone Economic News: Euro gains as Germany Steps up with Trade Balance Stats

The value of the Euro has increased by a small degree lately, thanks to Germany’s trade balance and current account stats for June both rising above forecasts. The trade surplus outcome was particularly beneficial, as it climbed from 21bn to 24.9bn, against an estimated drop to 20.8bn.

Other data out of the Eurozone lately has covered France’s negative budget balance in June as well as the reduction of the current Estonian trade deficit in June.

Positive movements seen for the Euro recently have included 0.2% against the Pound (EUR GBP) and 0.3% against the New Zealand Dollar (EUR NZD). In most other pairings, the Euro has risen by a small amount.

US Dollar on the Rise after Trump’s Viability as US President is Questioned

The US Dollar has also found itself in demand today, thanks to political and economic events yesterday.

On the data front, the Fed labour market conditions index for July rose from -0.1 to 1, while the political support for the ‘Buck’ stemmed from Republican candidate Donald Trump, despite markets usually reacting dovishly to the presidential hopeful.

Delivering his economic policies to ‘make America great again’, Trump promised to cut corporation tax by -20% to 15% and ‘easily’ jump-start the economy, but the delivery was marred by Republican security experts who stated in an open letter that;

‘[Trump] weakens US moral authority as the leader of the free world. He appears to lack basic knowledge about and belief in the US Constitution, US laws, and US institutions, including religious tolerance, freedom of the press, and an independent judiciary. None of us will vote for Donald Trump’.

Among the US Dollar’s gains have been a slight uptick against the Euro (USD EUR) and 0.3% against the Pound (USD GBP) and the New Zealand Dollar (USD NZD).

Euro coins and notes

Future EUR USD Forecast: Exchange Rate could be Shifted by Portuguese Trade and US Inventories

The next pairing data to watch out for will come from the Eurozone, where Portugal and Latvia will announce their trade balance results for June. At present, reductions in the current deficits are expected for both nations.

From the US, the afternoon may bring disappointment, as June wholesale inventories figure has a continued positive result forecast, which shows an unsold quantity of goods.

Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates

The Euro US Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1084 and the US Dollar Euro (USD EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9026 today.