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EUR CAD Exchange Rate Tumbles on Surprise Boom in Canadian Sales

The Euro has fallen further against the Canadian Dollar during Thursday’s afternoon session, hitting a fresh low of 1.4757.

This slump has mainly been caused by Canadian retail sales data, which has beaten forecasts. The April stats had been predicted to show either weak growth or declines, but the actual figures posted exceptional rises across the board.

The Eurozone was not without its good news, but the consumer confidence flash improvement from -3.3 points to -1.3 failed to push the EUR CAD exchange rate up.

(First published 12:29, June 22nd, 2017)

The Euro has fallen slightly against the Canadian Dollar today, but could make a near-term recovery on confidence figures.

  • EUR CAD rate dips to 1.4866 – CAD EUR rate rises to 0.6725
  • Euro dips despite ECB outlook – Central bank sees slow and steady growth
  • Canadian Dollar up despite oil decline – PM Trudeau to speak shortly
  • Euro recovery possible on confidence stats – Gloomy forecasts for upcoming CA inflation figures

The Euro’s recent slip against the Canadian Dollar has actually been a minor setback, given that the pair is still trading near the best weekly rate at 1.4889.

Euro Unsettled over ECB’s Tepid Outlook

The Euro’s weakness against the Canadian Dollar today comes after a so-so outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB). The latest ECB bulletin, covering the past and future, detailed the outlook of officials;

‘The ongoing economic expansion is increasingly resilient and has broadened across sectors and countries. Euro area growth is supported primarily by domestic demand’.

While this is a positive forecast, it is far from an extremely hawkish prediction from the ECB.

Tumbling Oil Prices Fail to Prevent CAD EUR Exchange Rate Rise

The Canadian Dollar has risen by 0.2% against the Euro today, despite the handicap of unsupportive crude oil prices.

Following US news that crude oil stocks were lower than expected, the price of crude instead fell, when it would usually rise.

While less oil typically causes higher global oil prices, concerns about an oil oversupply have overridden the US news.

The Canadian Dollar has instead appreciated ahead of an interview with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The PM is expected to discuss trade with the US in planned talks with NY Times reporters, which could lead to an optimistic outlook in spite of past difficulties.

EUR CAD Forecast: Recovery Possible on Upcoming Eurozone Confidence Stat

Upcoming Eurozone news could see a reversal of fortunes for the Euro, triggering a rise for the single currency.

This will be the Eurozone consumer confidence flash for June. Preliminary estimates are for an improvement in the index, from -3.3 points to -3.

While such a change may be seen as minor, it could still prove beneficial and push the Euro up against the Canadian Dollar.

Unfortunately, any afternoon EUR CAD rise may be short-lived, given the forecasts for upcoming Eurozone PMI data.

Friday’s Eurozone-wide PMIs, which measure activity in various sectors, are forecast to show slowdowns in most fields.

The main data will cover the manufacturing and services sectors, along with summarising composite figures.

While these sectors are not predicted to contract, any signs of a slowdown could nonetheless weaken the Euro.

The last Canadian data of the week will consist of today’s retail sales stats for April, along with inflation rate figures on Friday.

In the former case, monthly sales are forecast to rise in April, which may keep the CAD EUR exchange rate high.

Further ahead, Friday’s inflation rate stats for May are predicted to show a slowdown on the month and the year. Such a result may erase any prior Canadian Dollar gains, but the Euro could still be reeling from poor PMI results at the time.

Current Interbank EUR CAD Exchange Rates

At the time of writing, the Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR CAD) exchange rate was trading at 1.4866 and the Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD EUR) exchange rate was trading at 0.6725.