- EUR Volatile as Deutsche Bank Shares Drop Once Again – CEO unable to negotiate new settlement.
- Monday’s European Data Impresses – Shows growth across the board.
- US Election May Cause AUD to Soften – Investors becoming increasingly risk adverse.
- ZEW Survey Data – Better than expected results to boost Euro exchange rates.
The EUR AUD exchange rate has fluctuated over the last couple of days following mixed news from the Eurozone as renewed fears over Deutsche Bank clashed against some impressive data releases from Germany.
Euro Australian Dollar Rate Uncertain as Deutsche Bank Shares Drop
The Euro shares in Deutsche Bank dropped around 4% yesterday following a report from German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that CEO John Cryan had been unable to reduce the $14billion fine levied by the US Department of Justice over the mis-selling of mortgage bonds.
There had been speculation that Cryan would secure a new settlement from the DoJ whilst in Washington last week for a meeting of the International Monetary Fund, but his failure to do so has left investors uncertain over the fate of the bank and put pressure on the Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR AUD) exchange rate.
Positive Data a Boon for Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates
It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Euro (EUR) exchange rates yesterday however as German ecostats cast a positive light on the single currency.
The data was overwhelmingly positive yesterday as German exports surged to 5.4% – well ahead of the 2.2% that had been forecast – while imports also improved to 3.0% against predictions of 0.7%. These results led to the German trade surplus growing to 20.0b after dropping to 19.5b the month before.
Meanwhile the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data showed a spike to 8.5 in October, further strengthening the Euro (EUR) against some of its currency rivals.
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate May Weaken Ahead of US Election
While the commodity based Australian Dollar (AUD) currently enjoys a period of relative strength as trade prices remain fairly high, during the run up to the US presidential election traders may flee from the high-yield ‘Aussie’ as they seek shelter in the ‘safe haven’ of the US Dollar.
Today’s domestic data on home loans will do little to help AUD as it shows that they only rose to -3.0% in August after predictions it would reach -1.5%.
EUR AUD Exchange Rate Likely to Rise Following ZEW Survey Data
Better-than-expected data from the Eurozone ZEW survey will likely cause a rise in the EUR AUD exchange rate. The economic sentiment report showed a jump to 12.3 for the month of October – well surpassing the previous month’s report of 5.4.
This is the third consecutive month of growth for the survey and should indicate to investors that the Eurozone is over the ‘Brexit’ anxieties that caused sentiment to drop to -14.7 in the month following the UK vote to leave the European Union.
Current Interbank Exchange Rates
At the time of writing the EUR/AUD exchange rate was trending around 1.47 and the AUD/EUR exchange rate was trending around 0.68.