The Euro has advanced further against the New Zealand Dollar today, rising to a superior exchange rate of 1.6369.
In the lull before the Jackson Hole event starts and NZ trade balance data comes out, this may simply be due to traders sticking with the comparatively safer Euro.
The rise has been further supported by the Eurozone consumer confidence flash for August, which has improved instead of worsening as forecast.
(First published 12:06, August 23rd, 2017)
Better-than-expected Eurozone data has enabled a clear EUR NZD exchange rate advance today. This puts the pairing near the best level since June 2016, representing an over one-year high.
- EUR NZD rate up to 1.6312 – NZD EUR trades down at 0.6128
- Euro appreciates on higher German manufacturing – Draghi speech provides few clues for Jackson Hole
- New Zealand Dollar slides on government downgrade – Lower GDP growth predicted in 2017
- Draghi comments at Jackson Hole in focus – NZD may slip on trade balance stats
Today’s Euro dominance in the EUR NZD pairing largely comes from traders being pleasantly surprised by Eurozone PMI figures.
Euro Advances on Forecast-Beating PMI Printings
The main event for Euro traders today has proven supportive, opening with higher-than-forecast German manufacturing.
Additionally, the overall Eurozone composite has also shown a rise from 55.7 points to 55.8, a small but still better increase than the expected 55.5 point outcome.
Elsewhere, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has given a speech in Portugal. Just days away from further remarks in the US, Draghi has defended quantitative easing, which implies that policy tightening may not come in the near-term.
New Zealand Dollar Slides on Mixed Government Growth Forecast
Ahead of high-impact NZ trade news, the New Zealand Dollar has fallen due to uncertainty about the country’s economic future.
In a recent report, the government has estimated that the budget surplus could double in 2017. On the other hand, however, analysts believe that national economic growth will tick down on the year.
According to BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis, this could upset political parties looking to campaign for higher spending;
‘Those looking for Treasury to announce that there was money to burn…will be very disappointed. There were many who had assumed that the recent windfall gains that were flowing into tax revenues would provide the base for a much stronger future revenue track: they didn’t’.
EUR NZD Turbulence ahead on Jackson Hole Talks
Mario Draghi will remain in the headlines for the rest of the week, as he is scheduled to discuss monetary policy at an event in the US, the Jackson Hole Symposium. Starting on Thursday and ending on Saturday, this will bring speeches from key central bankers from around the world.
If Draghi hints at no change in future ECB policy, the Euro could slip against the New Zealand Dollar over trader dissatisfaction.
The New Zealand Dollar is not in for smooth sailing in the near term, however. Later tonight, the July trade balance result will come out. Estimates are for a shift from a surplus to a deficit range, which may trigger a brief New Zealand Dollar drop.
Current Interbank EUR NZD Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR NZD) exchange rate was trading at 1.6311 and the New Zealand Dollar to Euro (NZD EUR) exchange rate was trading at 0.6129.