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Euro to US Dollar Forecast: Single Currency Slips on Poor PMI Results


The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has fallen somewhat today, owing to a disappointing outcome from the morning’s Eurozone purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI), among other things. This represents a reversal of yesterday’s movement for the common currency.

Eurozone Economic News: Composite and Services PMIs Mostly Disappoint Today

The Euro (EUR) has been an uncertain prospect for investors today, with gains and losses being about even for the single currency. Notable exchange rate movements include a rise of 0.3% against the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and a 0.8% gain against the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR), but this has been countered by a slight loss against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) and a greater -0.8% dip against the Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY).

The main trigger behind this reduction of Euro appeal today has been the recent Eurozone-wide composite and services PMI results for February, which have almost all fallen in their finalised forms compared to the previous preliminary printings. Notable anomalies were France’s services score, which fell into the contraction range at 49.9 and the Italian composite PMI, which was the only recorded riser with movement from 53.7 to 54.7.

More supportively, the recent Eurozone retail sales figures for February have risen on the year from 2% to 2.4%.

US Dollar (USD) Appreciates on Recent Federal Reserve Comments

The US Dollar (USD) has risen by respectable amounts against almost all of its currency peers today, with the only noticeable loss being by -0.7% against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). Gains for the Buck have included 0.4% against the Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) and the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), a minor rise against the Euro (USD/EUR) and a 1% advance against the South African Rand (USD/ZAR).

The most recent support for the US currency has come from the Federal Reserve, with official Eric Rosengren stating that he sees an interest rate hike this year as ‘likely’. Elsewhere, radical newcomer Neel Kashkari has spoken out against banks being ‘too big to fail’, by calling for these institutions to bail themselves out if they go under, rather than leave the American taxpayer to foot the bill.

Future Forecast: US Manufacturing Stats due Soon, Eurozone Sales Stats out Tomorrow

The US is set to bring the next piece of movement-generating data, in the form of the optimistically predicted ISM non-manufacturing and Markit services and composite results for March.

Looking ahead, tomorrow morning will bring the Eurozone-wide retail sales PMIs for March.

Current EUR, USD Exchange Rates

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1366 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8801 today.