The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were all trending higher in Friday’s European trading as the UK general election result became clearer that the Conservatives were going to win the most votes.
Samantha & I voting Conservative this morning, so that everyone can have security whatever stage of life they are at. pic.twitter.com/rYTm0TkCQS
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) May 7, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates climbed in the second half of Thursday’s European trading as speculation for the UK general election peaked, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell after favourable US Initial Jobless Claims and US Continuing Claims figures emerged.
US Continuing Claims hit 2.2M, while the US Initial Jobless Claims stat came in at 265K.
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were all trending lower on Thursday as the UK general election saw UK voters have their say on the political future of the country.
However, German Factory Orders came in at 1.9% in March on the year in line with forecasts after February’s -1.3%.
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were trending lower after Greece made its IMF repayment and the Canadian Ivey PMI recorded gains, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trading higher as investors digested the ADP Employment Change figure.
The ADP Employment Change stat is used as an indicator as to how favourable Friday’s US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls stat will be, and it’s not looking like it’s going to be as good as economists have forecast.
US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figure is predicted to reach 230K in April, while the US Unemployment Rate is forecast to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%.
ADP vs. NFP Private Payrolls: pic.twitter.com/ogOQ3tCbwt
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) May 6, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates began to decline despite Markit’s UK Services PMI hitting an eight-month high on Wednesday, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate continued to trend higher.
#UK services growth hits 8-month high in April. Headline Index at 59.5 (58.9 in March). http://t.co/AUNyHIso4Z
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) May 6, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending lower on Wednesday after the BRC Shop Price Index continued to decline in April, the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were trading higher.
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rates Forecast to Soften on Markit Services PMI Fall
The BRC Shop Price Index rose from -2.1% to -1.9% in April on the year . Meanwhile, the Eurozone will release a whole host of final Markit Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) which could cause some movement if out of line with forecasts. The UK’s own Services PMI is forecast to soften from 58.9 to 58.5 which could cause the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate to soften.
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates all approached the close of Tuesday’s European session trending higher after the US trade deficit widened to its largest number since 2008.
GDP for Q1 now looking at a -0.5 number ? https://t.co/w1PzU2DFzJ
— fred walton (@fredwalton216) May 5, 2015
The deficit widened to -$51.4B in March, following the previous month’s -$35.9B. The recording is the widest since the Lehman Brothers crash which catalysed the great financial crisis in 2008.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were all trending higher at the start of Tuesday’s European trading ahead of some influential data releases later in the session.
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD), Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates were slightly shaken on Tuesday when Markit’s UK Construction PMI slipped from 57.8 to 54.2 in April.
Although the UK economic recovery may be slowing down, business confidence still remains buoyant and a lot of Britain’s hesitation appears to be a result of Thursday’s general election.
Markit’s Tim Moore commented: ‘April’s survey highlights another growth slowdown across the UK construction sector, with new work expanding at the weakest pace for almost two years. The uncertain general election outcome appears to have put some grit in the wheels of decision making. Construction firms widely noted delays with clients’ budget setting and a reduced propensity to commit to new projects.’
‘Despite experiencing pre-election risk aversion among clients in April, construction companies indicated a strong degree of confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook.’
US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: USD/GBP, USD/EUR, USD/CAD
Surge in imports likely to result in Q1 GDP being revised below zero…looking a lot like last year (minus the mid-year surge).
— Carl Riccadonna (@Riccanomix) May 5, 2015
The US Dollar could fluctuate later in Wall Street trading with the release of the US Trade Balance. Economists have forecast a widening in the deficit from -$35.4B to -$41.7B in March, an event that could see the US Dollar exchange rate soften.
However, the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP), US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) and US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rates could have further opportunity to move later in the session with the release of the highly influential US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite index.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge is forecast to decline from 56.5 to 56.2 in April. Additionally, Markit’s final Services and Composite Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) will be released.
This week will end with a bang with US Non-Farm Payrolls and US Unemployment Rate stats out during Friday’s Wall Street trading. The event is forecast to cause some major US Dollar exchange rate swings and the USD/GBP, USD/EUR, USD/CAD currency pairs are likely to be influenced significantly.
Canadian (CAD) Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: CAD/GBP, CAD/USD, CAD/EUR
The Canadian Dollar put in a mixed performance on Tuesday ahead of the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Balance data and Bank of Canada (BOC) official Carolyn Wilkins speaking in Montreal.
Wednesday will see the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index released, followed by Canadian Building Permits on Thursday.
However, the Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP), Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR) and Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) exchange rates could be in for some choppy trading on Friday with the release of the highly significant Canadian Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate figures.
The Canadian Unemployment stat is forecast to increase from 6.8% to 6.9% in April, while Canadian Net Change in Employment is predicted to record a -5.0K contraction. Another moderate factor that’ll be thrown into the mix on Friday will be the Canadian Housing Starts number which is forecast to come in at 182.0K in April.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/CAD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rates were all trading lower on Tuesday as Greek negotiations continued. The nation has been attempting to renegotiate its austerity package since radical left-wing party Syriza was voted into power in January.
The prospect of Greece running out of money in the near future is a very real threat and a default in loan repayments could see the nation kicked out of the Eurozone. However, according to some industry experts, Greece has been behind on payments to citizens who receive government pay cheques.
One junior doctor stated: ‘Last week we got paid on-call time for the month of December.’
Last week pensioners rebelled against the Government wishing to take pension funds to help keep the country afloat.
Meanwhile, by way of data, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rates may fluctuate on Tuesday’s European Commission Economic Forecast, as well as Wednesday’s Eurozone Retail Sales stat.
New @EU_Commission forecast for #Greece pretty dire, but based on assumption of bailout deal "by June" & subsequent return to biz confidence
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) May 5, 2015
Thursday will see the release of Markit’s German Construction PMI, and Markit’s German and Eurozone Retail PMI’s.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is trading at 1.8661. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.5416; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trading at 1.3746.
